afl-tips.com

Adelaide vs Geelong Tips

Round 9 2027, Thu 13 May, 7:30pm AEST at Adelaide Oval: we tip Adelaide by 4 with a 55% win chance.

Our tip
Adelaideby 4 points
Win chance
55%Adelaide 54.8%, Geelong 45.2%
Predicted score
98–94Adelaide first
Models with us
1 of 54 tip Geelong

Every model on this game

ADEGEE

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Adelaide54.8%4.0 pts
Elo Predicts!Adelaide52.5%1.0 pts
s10Geelong54.6%4.1 pts
SquiggleGeelong59.4%9.2 pts
StattractionGeelong56.0%5.6 pts
Wheelo RatingsGeelong53.2%2.6 pts
Squiggle aggregateGeelong54.0%4.1 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Adelaide

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Adelaide rate +6.8 overall (6th) and Geelong +14.1 (3rd), which leaves Adelaide 4 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Adelaide+6.2+0.5+6.8WLWWL
Geelong+13.4+0.6+14.1WWWWL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
22no draws
Adelaide wins
7
Geelong wins
15
Average margin
24.6points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2018Round 17Adelaide OvalAdelaide 112, Geelong 97Adelaide
2019Round 3Adelaide OvalAdelaide 75, Geelong 99Geelong
2019Round 15GMHBA StadiumGeelong 96, Adelaide 69Geelong
2020Round 13Adelaide OvalAdelaide 37, Geelong 65Geelong
2021Round 1Adelaide OvalAdelaide 103, Geelong 91Adelaide
2022Round 11GMHBA StadiumGeelong 97, Adelaide 55Geelong
2023Round 8GMHBA StadiumGeelong 98, Adelaide 72Geelong
2024Round 2Adelaide OvalAdelaide 77, Geelong 96Geelong
2024Round 21GMHBA StadiumGeelong 90, Adelaide 85Geelong
2025Round 5Adelaide OvalAdelaide 100, Geelong 119Geelong
2026Round 3GMHBA StadiumGeelong 68, Adelaide 60Geelong
2026Round 13Adelaide OvalAdelaide 75, Geelong 74Adelaide
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

They meet again in 2027

Mon 23 Aug12:00pm AEST · GMHBA StadiumGeelong70%GEEADE30%AdelaideGeelong by 17Models 5–0

More on this game

All Round 9 tips Adelaide fixture Geelong fixture