AFL Predictions 2027

One chart shows ratings for all 18 clubs, with attack across and defence up. Pick any season from 2017 onward and slide through it to watch the contenders pull away.

Season2027 · Pre-season

Since 2015, every AFL result in the Squiggle API has fed into our rebuilt ratings. Each club has a dot, and a dot higher and further right is better.

How the flag race shifted in 2026

After the fact, our model replayed the 2026 season round by round. It shows the shape of the race rather than the tips we published.

The flag chance

The ladder tower

Round winners

Round of 2026

Each result changed a club's season: its chances of a top 4 finish, the finals and the flag, plus projected wins and projected finish. The largest gain leads the list.

2026 Opening Round, replayed by our model. Arrows show the change from before the round; for finish, up means a higher spot.
Club	Result	Top 4	Finals	Flag	Proj. wins	Proj. finish
Gold Coast	Beat Geelong 125–69	37% ▲ 15.1	83% ▲ 14.8	8.2% ▲ 3.4	13.8 ▲ 1.4	6.4 ▲ 1.8
Sydney	Beat Carlton 132–69	21% ▲ 8.8	70% ▲ 15.1	3.5% ▲ 1.9	12.5 ▲ 1.1	8.2 ▲ 1.6
GWS	Beat Hawthorn 122–95	41% ▲ 10.0	86% ▲ 7.8	7.5% ▲ 2.2	14.2 ▲ 0.8	6.0 ▲ 1.1
Western Bulldogs	Beat Brisbane 111–106	65% ▲ 10.3	95% ▲ 3.2	20.5% ▲ 3.0	15.9 ▲ 0.8	4.0 ▲ 0.9
Collingwood	Beat St Kilda 78–66	29% ▲ 2.0	78% ▲ 3.2	6.6% ▲ 0.4	13.2 ▲ 0.3	7.3 ▲ 0.3
Adelaide	Bye	38% ▲ 2.4	82% ▼ 0.4	7.8% ▲ 0.9	13.8 –	6.4 ▲ 0.1
Fremantle	Bye	22% ▼ 0.4	69% ▼ 0.5	4.2% ▲ 0.8	12.5 –	8.2 –
West Coast	Bye	0% –	4% ▼ 0.4	0.0% –	6.0 ▼ 0.1	16.1 ▼ 0.1
Essendon	Bye	0% ▼ 0.1	8% ▼ 0.8	0.1% ▲ 0.1	7.1 –	15.0 –
North Melbourne	Bye	1% ▼ 0.4	16% ▼ 0.4	0.1% –	8.2 ▼ 0.1	13.8 –
Port Adelaide	Bye	5% ▲ 0.1	33% ▼ 1.0	0.4% ▼ 0.1	9.9 ▲ 0.1	11.9 –
Richmond	Bye	1% ▼ 0.1	9% ▼ 1.2	0.1% –	7.3 –	14.9 –
Melbourne	Bye	11% ▼ 1.0	50% ▼ 2.3	2.5% ▲ 0.1	11.1 ▼ 0.1	10.1 ▼ 0.1
St Kilda	Lost to Collingwood 66–78	5% ▼ 1.2	38% ▼ 3.3	0.9% –	10.1 ▼ 0.3	11.4 ▼ 0.3
Carlton	Lost to Sydney 69–132	2% ▼ 3.8	24% ▼ 14.7	0.5% ▼ 0.7	9.1 ▼ 1.1	12.8 ▼ 1.4
Brisbane	Lost to Western Bulldogs 106–111	49% ▼ 10.3	89% ▼ 3.7	13.4% ▼ 2.6	14.6 ▼ 0.8	5.4 ▼ 0.9
Hawthorn	Lost to GWS 95–122	38% ▼ 13.5	85% ▼ 5.4	12.4% ▼ 4.0	13.9 ▼ 1.0	6.2 ▼ 1.1
Geelong	Lost to Gold Coast 69–125	34% ▼ 18.2	81% ▼ 10.0	11.3% ▼ 5.3	13.6 ▼ 1.4	6.7 ▼ 1.6

2026 Round 1, replayed by our model. Arrows show the change from before the round; for finish, up means a higher spot.
Club	Result	Top 4	Finals	Flag	Proj. wins	Proj. finish
Western Bulldogs	Beat GWS 134–53	80% ▲ 14.8	99% ▲ 3.3	29.2% ▲ 8.7	17.0 ▲ 1.1	2.9 ▲ 1.1
Sydney	Beat Brisbane 104–60	34% ▲ 12.9	84% ▲ 14.5	5.2% ▲ 1.7	13.7 ▲ 1.2	6.5 ▲ 1.7
Adelaide	Beat Collingwood 93–79	49% ▲ 10.9	91% ▲ 8.3	10.1% ▲ 2.3	14.8 ▲ 1.0	5.3 ▲ 1.1
Hawthorn	Beat Essendon 145–83	46% ▲ 8.0	90% ▲ 4.9	14.4% ▲ 2.0	14.5 ▲ 0.6	5.4 ▲ 0.8
North Melbourne	Beat Port Adelaide 113–67	3% ▲ 1.6	26% ▲ 9.6	0.4% ▲ 0.3	9.4 ▲ 1.2	12.5 ▲ 1.3
Gold Coast	Beat West Coast 131–72	42% ▲ 4.5	87% ▲ 3.6	8.5% ▲ 0.3	14.2 ▲ 0.4	5.9 ▲ 0.5
Melbourne	Beat St Kilda 120–107	13% ▲ 1.8	57% ▲ 6.4	2.5% –	11.6 ▲ 0.5	9.5 ▲ 0.6
Carlton	Beat Richmond 75–71	2% ▼ 0.4	24% ▲ 0.6	0.4% ▼ 0.1	9.3 ▲ 0.2	12.7 ▲ 0.1
West Coast	Lost to Gold Coast 72–131	0% –	3% ▼ 0.6	0.0% –	5.8 ▼ 0.2	16.2 ▼ 0.1
Geelong	Beat Fremantle 110–100	35% ▲ 0.8	84% ▲ 2.8	9.7% ▼ 1.6	13.8 ▲ 0.2	6.5 ▲ 0.2
Richmond	Lost to Carlton 71–75	0% ▼ 0.2	7% ▼ 1.8	0.1% –	7.0 ▼ 0.3	15.1 ▼ 0.2
Essendon	Lost to Hawthorn 83–145	0% ▼ 0.3	5% ▼ 2.9	0.1% –	6.5 ▼ 0.6	15.6 ▼ 0.6
Fremantle	Lost to Geelong 100–110	19% ▼ 2.5	69% ▼ 0.7	3.1% ▼ 1.1	12.3 ▼ 0.2	8.4 ▼ 0.2
St Kilda	Lost to Melbourne 107–120	4% ▼ 1.8	32% ▼ 5.2	0.7% ▼ 0.2	9.7 ▼ 0.4	11.9 ▼ 0.5
Port Adelaide	Lost to North Melbourne 67–113	2% ▼ 3.3	19% ▼ 14.1	0.2% ▼ 0.2	8.7 ▼ 1.2	13.3 ▼ 1.4
Collingwood	Lost to Adelaide 79–93	17% ▼ 11.9	68% ▼ 10.0	4.1% ▼ 2.5	12.3 ▼ 0.9	8.5 ▼ 1.2
Brisbane	Lost to Sydney 60–104	33% ▼ 16.5	82% ▼ 7.2	7.7% ▼ 5.7	13.5 ▼ 1.1	6.8 ▼ 1.4
GWS	Lost to Western Bulldogs 53–134	23% ▼ 18.3	74% ▼ 11.9	3.5% ▼ 4.0	12.9 ▼ 1.3	7.8 ▼ 1.8

2026 Round 2, replayed by our model. Arrows show the change from before the round; for finish, up means a higher spot.
Club	Result	Top 4	Finals	Flag	Proj. wins	Proj. finish
Gold Coast	Beat Richmond 128–60	57% ▲ 15.1	94% ▲ 6.5	13.2% ▲ 4.7	15.2 ▲ 1.0	4.7 ▲ 1.2
Fremantle	Beat Melbourne 118–70	26% ▲ 7.4	79% ▲ 10.3	4.2% ▲ 1.1	13.1 ▲ 0.8	7.3 ▲ 1.1
St Kilda	Beat GWS 78–74	6% ▲ 2.6	44% ▲ 11.6	0.8% ▲ 0.1	10.7 ▲ 1.0	10.8 ▲ 1.1
Port Adelaide	Beat Essendon 133–70	3% ▲ 1.5	31% ▲ 11.9	0.1% ▼ 0.1	9.7 ▲ 1.0	12.0 ▲ 1.3
Western Bulldogs	Beat Adelaide 94–88	86% ▲ 5.5	99% ▲ 0.7	30.2% ▲ 1.0	17.5 ▲ 0.5	2.5 ▲ 0.4
Hawthorn	Beat Sydney 99–82	48% ▲ 1.4	92% ▲ 1.7	14.7% ▲ 0.3	14.7 ▲ 0.2	5.3 ▲ 0.1
West Coast	Beat North Melbourne 111–94	0% –	4% ▲ 1.3	0.0% –	6.7 ▲ 0.9	15.5 ▲ 0.7
Collingwood	Bye	18% ▲ 0.6	69% ▲ 1.4	3.8% ▼ 0.3	12.3 –	8.4 ▲ 0.1
Brisbane	Bye	32% ▼ 0.5	83% ▲ 0.7	7.8% ▲ 0.1	13.5 –	6.7 ▲ 0.1
Carlton	Bye	2% –	23% ▼ 1.0	0.4% –	9.2 ▼ 0.1	12.7 –
Geelong	Bye	34% ▼ 1.2	84% ▲ 0.3	9.2% ▼ 0.5	13.8 –	6.6 ▼ 0.1
Essendon	Lost to Port Adelaide 70–133	0% –	2% ▼ 3.1	0.0% ▼ 0.1	5.6 ▼ 0.9	16.3 ▼ 0.7
Richmond	Lost to Gold Coast 60–128	0% ▼ 0.2	4% ▼ 3.5	0.0% ▼ 0.1	6.1 ▼ 0.9	15.9 ▼ 0.8
Sydney	Lost to Hawthorn 82–99	29% ▼ 4.9	81% ▼ 3.0	4.5% ▼ 0.7	13.4 ▼ 0.3	7.0 ▼ 0.5
North Melbourne	Lost to West Coast 94–111	1% ▼ 1.7	17% ▼ 8.8	0.2% ▼ 0.2	8.5 ▼ 0.9	13.4 ▼ 0.9
Adelaide	Lost to Western Bulldogs 88–94	39% ▼ 9.6	88% ▼ 2.8	7.6% ▼ 2.5	14.1 ▼ 0.7	6.1 ▼ 0.8
Melbourne	Lost to Fremantle 70–118	7% ▼ 6.2	44% ▼ 12.2	1.3% ▼ 1.2	10.7 ▼ 0.9	10.8 ▼ 1.3
GWS	Lost to St Kilda 74–78	13% ▼ 9.8	63% ▼ 11.7	1.9% ▼ 1.6	11.9 ▼ 1.0	9.1 ▼ 1.3

2026 Round 3, replayed by our model. Arrows show the change from before the round; for finish, up means a higher spot.
Club	Result	Top 4	Finals	Flag	Proj. wins	Proj. finish
Brisbane	Beat St Kilda 113–80	40% ▲ 8.1	90% ▲ 7.6	10.0% ▲ 2.2	14.3 ▲ 0.8	5.8 ▲ 0.9
Collingwood	Beat GWS 87–54	23% ▲ 5.1	79% ▲ 9.9	5.9% ▲ 2.1	13.1 ▲ 0.8	7.5 ▲ 0.9
Fremantle	Beat Richmond 103–43	32% ▲ 5.2	85% ▲ 5.9	5.6% ▲ 1.4	13.6 ▲ 0.5	6.6 ▲ 0.7
Melbourne	Beat Carlton 100–77	8% ▲ 1.6	54% ▲ 9.3	1.5% ▲ 0.2	11.4 ▲ 0.7	9.9 ▲ 0.9
Geelong	Beat Adelaide 68–60	36% ▲ 2.2	87% ▲ 3.3	9.3% ▲ 0.1	14.1 ▲ 0.3	6.3 ▲ 0.3
West Coast	Beat Port Adelaide 92–90	0% ▲ 0.2	8% ▲ 4.1	0.0% –	7.8 ▲ 1.1	14.5 ▲ 1.0
North Melbourne	Beat Essendon 81–69	1% –	20% ▲ 2.6	0.1% ▼ 0.1	9.0 ▲ 0.5	13.0 ▲ 0.4
Sydney	Bye	29% ▲ 0.1	83% ▲ 1.8	4.5% –	13.5 ▲ 0.1	6.9 ▲ 0.1
Essendon	Lost to North Melbourne 69–81	0% ▼ 0.1	1% ▼ 0.7	0.0% –	5.2 ▼ 0.4	16.6 ▼ 0.3
Richmond	Lost to Fremantle 43–103	0% ▼ 0.2	2% ▼ 1.3	0.0% –	5.7 ▼ 0.4	16.3 ▼ 0.4
Gold Coast	Bye	55% ▼ 1.8	94% ▲ 0.7	12.8% ▼ 0.4	15.2 –	4.8 ▼ 0.1
Hawthorn	Bye	48% ▲ 0.2	93% ▲ 0.5	13.7% ▼ 1.0	14.8 ▲ 0.1	5.3 –
Western Bulldogs	Bye	84% ▼ 1.1	99% ▲ 0.2	28.6% ▼ 1.6	17.4 ▼ 0.1	2.6 ▼ 0.1
Adelaide	Lost to Geelong 60–68	34% ▼ 5.4	87% ▼ 0.6	6.5% ▼ 1.1	13.8 ▼ 0.3	6.4 ▼ 0.3
Carlton	Lost to Melbourne 77–100	1% ▼ 1.2	15% ▼ 8.5	0.1% ▼ 0.3	8.5 ▼ 0.7	13.6 ▼ 0.9
Port Adelaide	Lost to West Coast 90–92	1% ▼ 2.2	17% ▼ 13.4	0.1% –	8.6 ▼ 1.1	13.3 ▼ 1.3
St Kilda	Lost to Brisbane 80–113	2% ▼ 3.8	33% ▼ 11.2	0.3% ▼ 0.5	9.9 ▼ 0.8	11.7 ▼ 0.9
GWS	Lost to Collingwood 54–87	6% ▼ 7.0	52% ▼ 10.3	1.0% ▼ 0.9	11.2 ▼ 0.7	10.1 ▼ 1.0

2026 Round 4, replayed by our model. Arrows show the change from before the round; for finish, up means a higher spot.
Club	Result	Top 4	Finals	Flag	Proj. wins	Proj. finish
Sydney	Beat West Coast 163–35	55% ▲ 25.2	94% ▲ 11.5	10.6% ▲ 6.1	15.1 ▲ 1.6	4.8 ▲ 2.1
Brisbane	Beat Collingwood 119–65	52% ▲ 11.6	95% ▲ 4.1	13.3% ▲ 3.3	15.0 ▲ 0.7	4.9 ▲ 0.9
Melbourne	Beat Gold Coast 109–89	11% ▲ 3.3	66% ▲ 12.3	2.1% ▲ 0.6	12.3 ▲ 0.9	8.9 ▲ 1.0
Fremantle	Beat Adelaide 78–76	40% ▲ 8.0	90% ▲ 5.6	6.7% ▲ 1.1	14.4 ▲ 0.8	5.8 ▲ 0.8
Hawthorn	Beat Geelong 92–91	52% ▲ 4.6	95% ▲ 2.2	14.8% ▲ 1.1	15.3 ▲ 0.5	4.9 ▲ 0.4
Port Adelaide	Beat Richmond 90–48	2% ▲ 1.0	26% ▲ 8.7	0.1% –	9.5 ▲ 0.9	12.2 ▲ 1.1
North Melbourne	Beat Carlton 96–86	1% ▲ 0.3	24% ▲ 4.7	0.1% –	9.6 ▲ 0.6	12.3 ▲ 0.7
Essendon	Lost to Western Bulldogs 65–99	0% –	1% ▼ 0.4	0.0% –	5.2 –	16.5 ▲ 0.1
Richmond	Lost to Port Adelaide 48–90	0% –	1% ▼ 1.7	0.0% –	4.8 ▼ 0.9	16.8 ▼ 0.5
GWS	Bye	5% ▼ 0.9	50% ▼ 2.6	0.8% ▼ 0.2	11.1 ▼ 0.1	10.3 ▼ 0.2
St Kilda	Bye	2% ▼ 0.5	29% ▼ 3.9	0.4% ▲ 0.1	9.8 ▼ 0.1	11.9 ▼ 0.2
Western Bulldogs	Beat Essendon 99–65	82% ▼ 2.2	99% ▼ 0.4	27.9% ▼ 0.7	17.3 ▼ 0.1	2.7 ▼ 0.1
Carlton	Lost to North Melbourne 86–96	0% ▼ 0.6	9% ▼ 6.0	0.1% –	8.0 ▼ 0.5	14.1 ▼ 0.5
West Coast	Lost to Sydney 35–163	0% ▼ 0.3	2% ▼ 6.6	0.0% –	6.4 ▼ 1.4	15.8 ▼ 1.3
Geelong	Lost to Hawthorn 91–92	28% ▼ 8.3	84% ▼ 3.9	7.9% ▼ 1.4	13.7 ▼ 0.4	6.9 ▼ 0.6
Adelaide	Lost to Fremantle 76–78	19% ▼ 14.6	80% ▼ 7.1	4.1% ▼ 2.4	12.9 ▼ 0.9	7.6 ▼ 1.2
Collingwood	Lost to Brisbane 65–119	13% ▼ 9.3	68% ▼ 10.8	2.8% ▼ 3.1	12.3 ▼ 0.8	8.7 ▼ 1.2
Gold Coast	Lost to Melbourne 89–109	37% ▼ 17.5	88% ▼ 5.8	8.3% ▼ 4.5	14.1 ▼ 1.1	6.1 ▼ 1.3

2026 Round 5, replayed by our model. Arrows show the change from before the round; for finish, up means a higher spot.
Club	Result	Top 4	Finals	Flag	Proj. wins	Proj. finish
Hawthorn	Beat Western Bulldogs 104–64	73% ▲ 20.4	99% ▲ 4.2	22.1% ▲ 7.3	16.5 ▲ 1.2	3.4 ▲ 1.5
Sydney	Beat Gold Coast 100–68	68% ▲ 13.8	98% ▲ 3.7	15.5% ▲ 4.9	16.0 ▲ 0.9	3.7 ▲ 1.1
St Kilda	Beat Port Adelaide 81–67	3% ▲ 1.3	44% ▲ 15.2	0.4% –	10.7 ▲ 0.9	10.8 ▲ 1.1
GWS	Beat Richmond 131–75	6% ▲ 1.3	61% ▲ 10.7	1.2% ▲ 0.4	11.6 ▲ 0.5	9.6 ▲ 0.7
Fremantle	Beat Collingwood 45–39	46% ▲ 6.6	94% ▲ 4.1	7.0% ▲ 0.3	15.0 ▲ 0.6	5.2 ▲ 0.6
Geelong	Beat West Coast 122–76	28% ▲ 0.7	87% ▲ 3.8	8.2% ▲ 0.3	13.9 ▲ 0.2	6.6 ▲ 0.3
Adelaide	Beat Carlton 114–86	19% ▼ 0.1	83% ▲ 3.0	4.3% ▲ 0.2	13.1 ▲ 0.2	7.4 ▲ 0.2
Brisbane	Beat North Melbourne 92–66	53% ▲ 0.8	96% ▲ 1.6	13.5% ▲ 0.2	15.2 ▲ 0.2	4.8 ▲ 0.1
Essendon	Beat Melbourne 113–68	0% –	4% ▲ 2.8	0.0% –	6.7 ▲ 1.5	15.4 ▲ 1.1
Richmond	Lost to GWS 75–131	0% –	0% ▼ 0.3	0.0% –	4.3 ▼ 0.5	17.2 ▼ 0.4
West Coast	Lost to Geelong 76–122	0% –	1% ▼ 0.3	0.0% –	6.2 ▼ 0.2	16.0 ▼ 0.2
Carlton	Lost to Adelaide 86–114	0% ▼ 0.1	8% ▼ 1.0	0.1% –	7.7 ▼ 0.3	14.3 ▼ 0.2
North Melbourne	Lost to Brisbane 66–92	1% ▼ 0.7	23% ▼ 1.3	0.1% –	9.5 ▼ 0.1	12.4 ▼ 0.1
Port Adelaide	Lost to St Kilda 67–81	1% ▼ 1.1	16% ▼ 9.8	0.1% –	8.7 ▼ 0.8	13.2 ▼ 1.0
Collingwood	Lost to Fremantle 39–45	8% ▼ 5.9	63% ▼ 4.6	2.1% ▼ 0.7	11.8 ▼ 0.5	9.3 ▼ 0.6
Gold Coast	Lost to Sydney 68–100	23% ▼ 14.6	82% ▼ 6.8	4.7% ▼ 3.6	13.2 ▼ 0.9	7.3 ▼ 1.2
Melbourne	Lost to Essendon 68–113	3% ▼ 8.2	42% ▼ 24.2	0.6% ▼ 1.5	10.8 ▼ 1.5	10.9 ▼ 2.0
Western Bulldogs	Lost to Hawthorn 64–104	68% ▼ 14.0	98% ▼ 0.6	20.2% ▼ 7.7	16.2 ▼ 1.1	3.7 ▼ 1.0

2026 Round 6, replayed by our model. Arrows show the change from before the round; for finish, up means a higher spot.
Club	Result	Top 4	Finals	Flag	Proj. wins	Proj. finish
Geelong	Beat Western Bulldogs 131–56	53% ▲ 24.6	96% ▲ 8.5	17.9% ▲ 9.7	15.2 ▲ 1.3	4.8 ▲ 1.8
Sydney	Beat GWS 107–66	77% ▲ 8.7	99% ▲ 0.9	18.2% ▲ 2.7	16.4 ▲ 0.4	3.1 ▲ 0.6
Fremantle	Beat West Coast 97–41	55% ▲ 8.8	95% ▲ 1.0	9.1% ▲ 2.1	15.3 ▲ 0.3	4.7 ▲ 0.5
Melbourne	Beat Brisbane 104–102	6% ▲ 2.5	54% ▲ 11.8	1.1% ▲ 0.5	11.7 ▲ 0.9	9.9 ▲ 1.0
North Melbourne	Beat Richmond 130–55	2% ▲ 1.4	34% ▲ 10.8	0.2% ▲ 0.1	10.4 ▲ 0.9	11.5 ▲ 0.9
Collingwood	Beat Carlton 88–83	9% ▲ 1.7	65% ▲ 1.5	2.0% ▼ 0.1	12.1 ▲ 0.3	9.1 ▲ 0.2
St Kilda	Lost to Adelaide 102–103	3% –	44% ▲ 0.2	0.7% ▲ 0.3	10.8 ▲ 0.1	10.8 –
Richmond	Lost to North Melbourne 55–130	0% –	0% ▼ 0.2	0.0% –	3.5 ▼ 0.8	17.6 ▼ 0.4
West Coast	Lost to Fremantle 41–97	0% –	1% ▼ 0.6	0.0% –	6.0 ▼ 0.2	16.2 ▼ 0.2
Essendon	Lost to Gold Coast 110–119	0% –	3% ▼ 0.9	0.0% –	6.8 ▲ 0.1	15.3 ▲ 0.1
Port Adelaide	Lost to Hawthorn 86–89	0% ▼ 0.3	15% ▼ 0.8	0.1% –	8.8 ▲ 0.1	13.1 ▲ 0.1
Carlton	Lost to Collingwood 83–88	0% –	6% ▼ 1.7	0.1% –	7.6 ▼ 0.1	14.5 ▼ 0.2
Adelaide	Beat St Kilda 103–102	19% –	82% ▼ 0.9	3.9% ▼ 0.4	13.1 –	7.4 –
Hawthorn	Beat Port Adelaide 89–86	71% ▼ 1.5	98% ▼ 0.7	19.8% ▼ 2.3	16.4 ▼ 0.1	3.5 ▼ 0.1
Gold Coast	Beat Essendon 119–110	19% ▼ 4.0	78% ▼ 4.0	4.3% ▼ 0.4	13.0 ▼ 0.2	7.7 ▼ 0.4
GWS	Lost to Sydney 66–107	3% ▼ 3.2	44% ▼ 16.7	0.8% ▼ 0.4	10.9 ▼ 0.7	10.7 ▼ 1.1
Brisbane	Lost to Melbourne 102–104	40% ▼ 12.6	94% ▼ 2.6	11.5% ▼ 2.0	14.4 ▼ 0.8	5.6 ▼ 0.8
Western Bulldogs	Lost to Geelong 56–131	42% ▼ 26.2	93% ▼ 5.6	10.3% ▼ 9.9	14.7 ▼ 1.5	5.5 ▼ 1.8

2026 Round 7, replayed by our model. Arrows show the change from before the round; for finish, up means a higher spot.
Club	Result	Top 4	Finals	Flag	Proj. wins	Proj. finish
Sydney	Beat Western Bulldogs 126–60	92% ▲ 15.1	100% ▲ 0.9	27.5% ▲ 9.3	17.7 ▲ 1.3	2.1 ▲ 1.0
Brisbane	Beat Adelaide 127–75	58% ▲ 17.7	97% ▲ 3.5	15.1% ▲ 3.6	15.1 ▲ 0.7	4.6 ▲ 1.0
Collingwood	Beat Essendon 137–60	17% ▲ 7.9	79% ▲ 14.5	4.7% ▲ 2.7	13.0 ▲ 0.9	7.7 ▲ 1.4
Hawthorn	Beat Gold Coast 112–63	83% ▲ 12.1	100% ▲ 1.4	23.5% ▲ 3.7	17.1 ▲ 0.7	2.8 ▲ 0.7
St Kilda	Beat West Coast 143–42	6% ▲ 3.2	58% ▲ 13.7	1.4% ▲ 0.7	11.6 ▲ 0.8	9.7 ▲ 1.1
Port Adelaide	Beat Geelong 95–65	2% ▲ 1.2	27% ▲ 12.0	0.2% ▲ 0.1	10.0 ▲ 1.2	11.9 ▲ 1.2
Melbourne	Beat Richmond 126–72	8% ▲ 2.7	62% ▲ 8.4	1.4% ▲ 0.3	12.2 ▲ 0.5	9.3 ▲ 0.6
GWS	Beat North Melbourne 105–98	3% ▲ 0.2	46% ▲ 1.7	0.5% ▼ 0.3	11.2 ▲ 0.3	10.5 ▲ 0.2
Richmond	Lost to Melbourne 72–126	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	3.2 ▼ 0.3	17.6 –
West Coast	Lost to St Kilda 42–143	0% –	0% ▼ 0.7	0.0% –	5.3 ▼ 0.7	16.6 ▼ 0.4
Carlton	Lost to Fremantle 89–103	0% –	4% ▼ 2.1	0.1% –	7.5 ▼ 0.1	14.6 ▼ 0.1
Essendon	Lost to Collingwood 60–137	0% –	1% ▼ 2.3	0.0% –	5.9 ▼ 0.9	15.9 ▼ 0.6
Fremantle	Beat Carlton 103–89	57% ▲ 2.0	96% ▲ 0.5	7.4% ▼ 1.7	15.4 ▲ 0.1	4.6 ▲ 0.1
North Melbourne	Lost to GWS 98–105	2% ▼ 0.6	28% ▼ 6.3	0.2% –	10.1 ▼ 0.3	11.8 ▼ 0.3
Adelaide	Lost to Brisbane 75–127	11% ▼ 8.5	71% ▼ 11.3	2.2% ▼ 1.7	12.4 ▼ 0.7	8.6 ▼ 1.2
Gold Coast	Lost to Hawthorn 63–112	10% ▼ 8.5	64% ▼ 14.0	2.1% ▼ 2.2	12.1 ▼ 0.9	9.0 ▼ 1.3
Geelong	Lost to Port Adelaide 65–95	32% ▼ 21.1	89% ▼ 6.9	9.4% ▼ 8.5	14.0 ▼ 1.2	6.4 ▼ 1.6
Western Bulldogs	Lost to Sydney 60–126	19% ▼ 23.3	80% ▼ 13.1	4.2% ▼ 6.1	13.3 ▼ 1.4	7.6 ▼ 2.1

2026 Round 8, replayed by our model. Arrows show the change from before the round; for finish, up means a higher spot.
Club	Result	Top 4	Finals	Flag	Proj. wins	Proj. finish
Fremantle	Beat Western Bulldogs 114–102	70% ▲ 12.7	99% ▲ 2.9	9.6% ▲ 2.2	16.3 ▲ 0.9	3.7 ▲ 0.9
Brisbane	Beat Essendon 143–79	64% ▲ 6.3	99% ▲ 2.0	19.5% ▲ 4.4	15.6 ▲ 0.5	4.1 ▲ 0.5
St Kilda	Beat Carlton 108–69	8% ▲ 1.7	72% ▲ 13.5	1.7% ▲ 0.3	12.3 ▲ 0.7	8.6 ▲ 1.1
Geelong	Beat North Melbourne 135–86	35% ▲ 2.8	93% ▲ 3.6	10.4% ▲ 1.0	14.4 ▲ 0.4	5.9 ▲ 0.5
Adelaide	Beat Port Adelaide 76–75	11% –	77% ▲ 5.8	1.8% ▼ 0.4	12.8 ▲ 0.4	8.2 ▲ 0.4
Gold Coast	Beat GWS 83–63	10% ▼ 0.7	68% ▲ 4.3	1.8% ▼ 0.3	12.4 ▲ 0.3	8.8 ▲ 0.2
Collingwood	Drew with Hawthorn 93–93	16% ▼ 1.3	82% ▲ 2.7	4.3% ▼ 0.4	13.2 ▲ 0.2	7.6 ▲ 0.1
Richmond	Beat West Coast 99–88	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	3.9 ▲ 0.7	17.2 ▲ 0.4
West Coast	Lost to Richmond 88–99	0% –	0% ▼ 0.1	0.0% –	4.6 ▼ 0.7	16.8 ▼ 0.2
Essendon	Lost to Brisbane 79–143	0% –	0% ▼ 0.5	0.0% –	5.3 ▼ 0.6	16.2 ▼ 0.3
Melbourne	Lost to Sydney 114–131	6% ▼ 2.0	64% ▲ 1.7	1.0% ▼ 0.4	12.3 ▲ 0.1	9.2 ▲ 0.1
Carlton	Lost to St Kilda 69–108	0% ▼ 0.1	1% ▼ 2.7	0.0% ▼ 0.1	6.8 ▼ 0.7	15.0 ▼ 0.4
Port Adelaide	Lost to Adelaide 75–76	1% ▼ 1.0	24% ▼ 3.9	0.1% ▼ 0.1	9.7 ▼ 0.3	12.0 ▼ 0.1
Hawthorn	Drew with Collingwood 93–93	80% ▼ 3.2	100% ▼ 0.1	22.2% ▼ 1.3	16.9 ▼ 0.2	3.1 ▼ 0.3
Sydney	Beat Melbourne 131–114	91% ▼ 0.9	100% ▲ 0.1	25.2% ▼ 2.3	17.6 ▼ 0.1	2.2 ▼ 0.1
North Melbourne	Lost to Geelong 86–135	0% ▼ 1.2	19% ▼ 8.9	0.1% ▼ 0.1	9.6 ▼ 0.5	12.4 ▼ 0.6
GWS	Lost to Gold Coast 63–83	2% ▼ 1.9	37% ▼ 8.8	0.4% ▼ 0.1	10.8 ▼ 0.4	11.1 ▼ 0.6
Western Bulldogs	Lost to Fremantle 102–114	8% ▼ 11.1	68% ▼ 11.5	1.9% ▼ 2.3	12.5 ▼ 0.8	8.8 ▼ 1.2

2026 Round 9, replayed by our model. Arrows show the change from before the round; for finish, up means a higher spot.
Club	Result	Top 4	Finals	Flag	Proj. wins	Proj. finish
Geelong	Beat Collingwood 122–68	53% ▲ 18.0	98% ▲ 5.4	18.0% ▲ 7.6	15.4 ▲ 1.0	4.7 ▲ 1.2
Gold Coast	Beat St Kilda 89–60	14% ▲ 4.1	82% ▲ 13.7	3.0% ▲ 1.2	13.2 ▲ 0.8	7.7 ▲ 1.1
Western Bulldogs	Beat Port Adelaide 74–72	9% ▲ 1.6	79% ▲ 11.0	2.4% ▲ 0.5	13.0 ▲ 0.5	8.1 ▲ 0.7
Fremantle	Beat Hawthorn 88–73	77% ▲ 7.1	100% ▲ 0.7	11.3% ▲ 1.7	16.8 ▲ 0.5	3.3 ▲ 0.4
Adelaide	Beat Richmond 98–61	11% –	81% ▲ 4.3	1.8% –	13.0 ▲ 0.2	7.9 ▲ 0.3
Sydney	Beat North Melbourne 105–97	93% ▲ 1.8	100% –	25.4% ▲ 0.2	17.8 ▲ 0.2	2.1 ▲ 0.1
Carlton	Lost to Brisbane 89–100	0% –	2% ▲ 0.4	0.0% –	6.9 ▲ 0.1	14.8 ▲ 0.2
Essendon	Lost to GWS 89–103	0% –	0% ▲ 0.1	0.0% –	5.3 –	16.1 ▲ 0.1
West Coast	Lost to Melbourne 67–99	0% –	0% ▲ 0.1	0.0% –	4.6 –	16.8 –
Richmond	Lost to Adelaide 61–98	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	3.6 ▼ 0.3	17.4 ▼ 0.2
North Melbourne	Lost to Sydney 97–105	0% ▼ 0.1	18% ▼ 0.9	0.1% –	9.5 ▼ 0.1	12.5 ▼ 0.1
Melbourne	Beat West Coast 99–67	5% ▼ 1.1	63% ▼ 0.2	0.9% ▼ 0.1	12.2 ▼ 0.1	9.3 ▼ 0.1
GWS	Beat Essendon 103–89	1% ▼ 0.4	35% ▼ 1.7	0.3% ▼ 0.1	10.7 ▼ 0.1	11.2 ▼ 0.1
Port Adelaide	Lost to Western Bulldogs 72–74	0% ▼ 0.4	17% ▼ 6.3	0.1% –	9.2 ▼ 0.5	12.5 ▼ 0.5
Hawthorn	Lost to Fremantle 73–88	74% ▼ 6.2	99% ▼ 0.2	19.2% ▼ 3.0	16.4 ▼ 0.5	3.5 ▼ 0.4
St Kilda	Lost to Gold Coast 60–89	3% ▼ 5.1	58% ▼ 13.1	0.7% ▼ 1.0	11.6 ▼ 0.7	9.7 ▼ 1.1
Brisbane	Beat Carlton 100–89	56% ▼ 8.4	99% ▼ 0.5	15.1% ▼ 4.4	15.4 ▼ 0.2	4.4 ▼ 0.3
Collingwood	Lost to Geelong 68–122	5% ▼ 10.9	69% ▼ 13.1	1.7% ▼ 2.6	12.2 ▼ 1.0	9.0 ▼ 1.4

2026 Round 10, replayed by our model. Arrows show the change from before the round; for finish, up means a higher spot.
Club	Result	Top 4	Finals	Flag	Proj. wins	Proj. finish
Geelong	Beat Brisbane 117–76	76% ▲ 23.6	100% ▲ 1.6	29.2% ▲ 11.2	16.4 ▲ 1.0	3.4 ▲ 1.3
Melbourne	Beat Hawthorn 120–81	15% ▲ 10.0	86% ▲ 22.7	2.6% ▲ 1.7	13.6 ▲ 1.4	7.4 ▲ 1.9
Adelaide	Beat North Melbourne 133–65	18% ▲ 7.4	91% ▲ 9.9	3.5% ▲ 1.7	13.7 ▲ 0.7	6.9 ▲ 1.0
Gold Coast	Beat Port Adelaide 98–73	19% ▲ 5.1	89% ▲ 7.8	3.4% ▲ 0.4	13.7 ▲ 0.5	7.0 ▲ 0.7
Fremantle	Beat Essendon 104–61	84% ▲ 6.8	100% ▲ 0.4	13.3% ▲ 2.0	17.2 ▲ 0.4	2.8 ▲ 0.5
St Kilda	Beat Richmond 109–73	3% ▲ 0.2	66% ▲ 7.5	1.0% ▲ 0.3	11.8 ▲ 0.2	9.4 ▲ 0.3
Carlton	Beat Western Bulldogs 74–62	0% –	4% ▲ 2.4	0.0% –	7.9 ▲ 1.0	14.0 ▲ 0.8
Collingwood	Lost to Sydney 75–81	4% ▼ 0.7	70% ▲ 1.0	1.8% ▲ 0.1	12.1 ▼ 0.1	9.1 ▼ 0.1
Richmond	Lost to St Kilda 73–109	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	3.5 ▼ 0.1	17.6 ▼ 0.2
West Coast	Beat GWS 88–71	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	5.7 ▲ 1.1	16.2 ▲ 0.6
Essendon	Lost to Fremantle 61–104	0% –	0% ▼ 0.1	0.0% –	4.9 ▼ 0.4	16.5 ▼ 0.4
Sydney	Beat Collingwood 81–75	94% ▲ 0.7	100% ▲ 0.1	23.8% ▼ 1.6	17.9 ▲ 0.1	2.0 ▲ 0.1
Port Adelaide	Lost to Gold Coast 73–98	0% ▼ 0.2	11% ▼ 6.0	0.0% ▼ 0.1	8.8 ▼ 0.4	12.9 ▼ 0.4
North Melbourne	Lost to Adelaide 65–133	0% ▼ 0.2	8% ▼ 9.5	0.0% ▼ 0.1	8.7 ▼ 0.8	13.2 ▼ 0.7
GWS	Lost to West Coast 71–88	0% ▼ 0.9	16% ▼ 18.9	0.1% ▼ 0.2	9.5 ▼ 1.2	12.5 ▼ 1.3
Western Bulldogs	Lost to Carlton 62–74	3% ▼ 6.3	64% ▼ 15.5	1.2% ▼ 1.2	12.0 ▼ 1.0	9.5 ▼ 1.4
Brisbane	Lost to Geelong 76–117	35% ▼ 20.9	97% ▼ 1.9	8.8% ▼ 6.3	14.5 ▼ 0.9	5.6 ▼ 1.2
Hawthorn	Lost to Melbourne 81–120	49% ▼ 24.9	98% ▼ 1.3	11.3% ▼ 7.9	15.3 ▼ 1.1	4.9 ▼ 1.4

2026 Round 11, replayed by our model. Arrows show the change from before the round; for finish, up means a higher spot.
Club	Result	Top 4	Finals	Flag	Proj. wins	Proj. finish
Geelong	Beat Sydney 107–80	88% ▲ 11.5	100% ▲ 0.4	35.0% ▲ 5.8	16.8 ▲ 0.4	2.9 ▲ 0.5
GWS	Beat Brisbane 166–88	1% ▲ 0.8	42% ▲ 25.9	0.4% ▲ 0.3	10.9 ▲ 1.4	10.8 ▲ 1.7
Hawthorn	Beat Adelaide 75–66	65% ▲ 16.3	99% ▲ 1.0	13.6% ▲ 2.3	15.7 ▲ 0.4	4.2 ▲ 0.7
Fremantle	Beat St Kilda 104–74	91% ▲ 7.4	100% –	15.2% ▲ 1.9	17.5 ▲ 0.3	2.4 ▲ 0.4
Western Bulldogs	Beat Melbourne 93–90	5% ▲ 1.6	70% ▲ 6.6	1.3% ▲ 0.1	12.4 ▲ 0.4	8.9 ▲ 0.6
North Melbourne	Beat Gold Coast 111–105	0% ▲ 0.1	15% ▲ 6.6	0.0% –	9.6 ▲ 0.9	12.6 ▲ 0.6
Carlton	Beat Port Adelaide 92–58	0% –	10% ▲ 5.4	0.0% –	8.9 ▲ 1.0	13.2 ▲ 0.8
Richmond	Beat Essendon 74–56	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	4.2 ▲ 0.7	17.3 ▲ 0.3
West Coast	Lost to Collingwood 82–92	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	5.9 ▲ 0.2	16.1 ▲ 0.1
Essendon	Lost to Richmond 56–74	0% –	0% ▼ 0.1	0.0% –	4.0 ▼ 0.9	17.2 ▼ 0.7
Sydney	Lost to Geelong 80–107	95% ▲ 0.7	100% –	21.7% ▼ 2.1	17.5 ▼ 0.4	2.1 ▼ 0.1
Adelaide	Lost to Hawthorn 66–75	15% ▼ 3.0	89% ▼ 1.8	3.0% ▼ 0.5	13.3 ▼ 0.4	7.0 ▼ 0.1
Port Adelaide	Lost to Carlton 58–92	0% –	4% ▼ 7.1	0.0% –	7.8 ▼ 1.0	14.2 ▼ 1.3
Melbourne	Lost to Western Bulldogs 90–93	11% ▼ 4.6	82% ▼ 3.9	2.5% ▼ 0.1	13.1 ▼ 0.5	7.8 ▼ 0.4
Collingwood	Beat West Coast 92–82	3% ▼ 1.1	63% ▼ 7.3	1.1% ▼ 0.7	11.8 ▼ 0.3	9.4 ▼ 0.3
St Kilda	Lost to Fremantle 74–104	2% ▼ 0.9	56% ▼ 9.6	0.6% ▼ 0.4	11.4 ▼ 0.4	9.9 ▼ 0.5
Gold Coast	Lost to North Melbourne 105–111	11% ▼ 7.3	82% ▼ 7.7	2.7% ▼ 0.7	12.9 ▼ 0.8	7.8 ▼ 0.8
Brisbane	Lost to GWS 88–166	14% ▼ 21.4	88% ▼ 8.4	3.0% ▼ 5.8	13.2 ▼ 1.3	7.2 ▼ 1.6

2026 Round 12, replayed by our model. Arrows show the change from before the round; for finish, up means a higher spot.
Club	Result	Top 4	Finals	Flag	Proj. wins	Proj. finish
Hawthorn	Beat St Kilda 119–67	82% ▲ 16.7	100% ▲ 0.9	18.3% ▲ 4.7	16.3 ▲ 0.6	3.5 ▲ 0.7
GWS	Beat Melbourne 119–70	2% ▲ 1.3	62% ▲ 20.4	0.9% ▲ 0.5	11.7 ▲ 0.8	9.5 ▲ 1.3
Sydney	Beat Richmond 170–56	98% ▲ 3.4	100% –	26.8% ▲ 5.1	18.0 ▲ 0.5	1.9 ▲ 0.2
Fremantle	Beat Brisbane 103–78	97% ▲ 6.1	100% ▲ 0.1	17.9% ▲ 2.7	18.3 ▲ 0.8	2.0 ▲ 0.4
Carlton	Beat Geelong 88–84	0% –	22% ▲ 12.1	0.2% ▲ 0.2	9.9 ▲ 1.0	12.2 ▲ 1.0
Western Bulldogs	Beat Collingwood 97–93	6% ▲ 1.7	80% ▲ 9.5	1.6% ▲ 0.3	12.8 ▲ 0.4	8.1 ▲ 0.8
North Melbourne	Bye	0% ▲ 0.1	17% ▲ 1.8	0.0% –	9.7 ▲ 0.1	12.6 –
Gold Coast	Bye	11% ▼ 0.3	83% ▲ 1.0	2.5% ▼ 0.2	13.0 ▲ 0.1	7.6 ▲ 0.2
Port Adelaide	Bye	0% –	4% ▲ 0.1	0.0% –	7.7 ▼ 0.1	14.4 ▼ 0.2
West Coast	Beat Essendon 85–55	0% –	0% ▲ 0.1	0.0% –	6.6 ▲ 0.7	15.7 ▲ 0.4
Essendon	Lost to West Coast 55–85	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	3.3 ▼ 0.7	17.4 ▼ 0.2
Richmond	Lost to Sydney 56–170	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	3.9 ▼ 0.3	17.3 –
Adelaide	Bye	14% ▼ 1.2	91% ▲ 1.3	2.8% ▼ 0.2	13.3 –	6.9 ▲ 0.1
Collingwood	Lost to Western Bulldogs 93–97	2% ▼ 0.9	58% ▼ 5.0	0.9% ▼ 0.2	11.5 ▼ 0.3	9.8 ▼ 0.4
St Kilda	Lost to Hawthorn 67–119	0% ▼ 1.8	37% ▼ 18.9	0.2% ▼ 0.4	10.6 ▼ 0.8	11.1 ▼ 1.2
Brisbane	Lost to Fremantle 78–103	5% ▼ 8.3	79% ▼ 9.4	1.4% ▼ 1.6	12.4 ▼ 0.8	8.3 ▼ 1.1
Melbourne	Lost to GWS 70–119	4% ▼ 6.9	69% ▼ 13.7	0.9% ▼ 1.6	12.2 ▼ 0.9	9.1 ▼ 1.3
Geelong	Lost to Carlton 84–88	78% ▼ 9.8	100% ▼ 0.1	25.6% ▼ 9.4	15.9 ▼ 0.9	3.7 ▼ 0.8

2026 Round 13, replayed by our model. Arrows show the change from before the round; for finish, up means a higher spot.
Club	Result	Top 4	Finals	Flag	Proj. wins	Proj. finish
Fremantle	Beat North Melbourne 155–31	99% ▲ 2.3	100% –	27.1% ▲ 9.2	19.2 ▲ 0.9	1.4 ▲ 0.6
Brisbane	Beat Gold Coast 106–75	13% ▲ 7.4	92% ▲ 13.0	2.5% ▲ 1.1	13.3 ▲ 0.9	7.0 ▲ 1.3
Western Bulldogs	Beat Hawthorn 77–71	14% ▲ 7.3	92% ▲ 12.2	2.2% ▲ 0.6	13.6 ▲ 0.8	7.0 ▲ 1.1
Melbourne	Beat Collingwood 83–75	7% ▲ 3.5	82% ▲ 13.7	1.2% ▲ 0.3	12.8 ▲ 0.6	8.1 ▲ 1.0
Adelaide	Beat Geelong 75–74	22% ▲ 8.6	95% ▲ 4.0	3.7% ▲ 0.9	13.8 ▲ 0.5	6.3 ▲ 0.6
St Kilda	Lost to Sydney 102–104	0% ▼ 0.1	42% ▲ 4.8	0.3% ▲ 0.1	10.7 ▲ 0.1	10.8 ▲ 0.3
Essendon	Lost to Carlton 67–72	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	3.3 –	17.5 ▼ 0.1
Richmond	Bye	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	4.0 ▲ 0.1	17.3 –
West Coast	Lost to Port Adelaide 71–77	0% –	0% ▼ 0.1	0.0% –	6.3 ▼ 0.3	15.9 ▼ 0.2
GWS	Bye	3% ▲ 0.4	62% ▼ 0.6	0.8% ▼ 0.1	11.7 –	9.5 –
Port Adelaide	Beat West Coast 77–71	0% –	4% ▼ 0.5	0.0% –	8.0 ▲ 0.3	14.1 ▲ 0.3
Carlton	Beat Essendon 72–67	0% ▲ 0.1	18% ▼ 3.7	0.1% ▼ 0.1	9.9 –	12.3 ▼ 0.1
North Melbourne	Lost to Fremantle 31–155	0% ▼ 0.2	5% ▼ 11.9	0.0% –	8.8 ▼ 0.9	13.7 ▼ 1.1
Sydney	Beat St Kilda 104–102	98% ▼ 0.4	100% –	22.6% ▼ 4.2	17.8 ▼ 0.2	2.0 ▼ 0.1
Collingwood	Lost to Melbourne 75–83	1% ▼ 1.4	43% ▼ 14.8	0.5% ▼ 0.4	11.0 ▼ 0.5	10.7 ▼ 0.9
Geelong	Lost to Adelaide 74–75	69% ▼ 9.0	100% ▼ 0.3	22.9% ▼ 2.7	15.3 ▼ 0.6	4.2 ▼ 0.5
Hawthorn	Lost to Western Bulldogs 71–77	70% ▼ 12.1	100% ▼ 0.3	15.1% ▼ 3.2	15.6 ▼ 0.7	4.1 ▼ 0.6
Gold Coast	Lost to Brisbane 75–106	5% ▼ 6.4	67% ▼ 15.4	1.1% ▼ 1.4	12.0 ▼ 1.0	9.1 ▼ 1.5

2026 Round 14, replayed by our model. Arrows show the change from before the round; for finish, up means a higher spot.
Club	Result	Top 4	Finals	Flag	Proj. wins	Proj. finish
Adelaide	Beat Western Bulldogs 121–64	41% ▲ 19.0	99% ▲ 4.9	7.4% ▲ 3.7	14.9 ▲ 1.1	4.9 ▲ 1.4
St Kilda	Beat GWS 96–88	0% –	57% ▲ 14.4	0.4% ▲ 0.1	11.2 ▲ 0.5	10.1 ▲ 0.7
Geelong	Beat Gold Coast 105–60	74% ▲ 5.4	100% ▲ 0.5	24.8% ▲ 1.9	15.7 ▲ 0.4	3.9 ▲ 0.3
Melbourne	Beat Essendon 95–50	7% –	89% ▲ 6.7	1.5% ▲ 0.3	13.1 ▲ 0.3	7.6 ▲ 0.5
Fremantle	Bye	99% ▼ 0.1	100% –	28.3% ▲ 1.2	19.1 ▼ 0.1	1.5 ▼ 0.1
North Melbourne	Beat West Coast 74–73	0% –	7% ▲ 2.4	0.0% –	9.2 ▲ 0.4	13.4 ▲ 0.3
Carlton	Bye	0% ▼ 0.1	20% ▲ 2.2	0.1% –	10.0 ▲ 0.1	12.2 ▲ 0.1
Essendon	Lost to Melbourne 50–95	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	2.9 ▼ 0.4	17.6 ▼ 0.1
Richmond	Lost to Brisbane 80–115	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	3.9 ▼ 0.1	17.2 ▲ 0.1
West Coast	Lost to North Melbourne 73–74	0% –	0% ▼ 0.1	0.0% –	5.8 ▼ 0.5	16.1 ▼ 0.2
Port Adelaide	Lost to Sydney 90–93	0% –	3% ▼ 1.1	0.0% –	7.8 ▼ 0.2	14.2 ▼ 0.1
Collingwood	Bye	1% ▼ 0.2	42% ▼ 1.0	0.5% –	10.9 ▼ 0.1	10.8 ▼ 0.1
Sydney	Beat Port Adelaide 93–90	98% ▲ 0.5	100% –	20.9% ▼ 1.7	18.1 ▲ 0.3	1.9 ▲ 0.1
Brisbane	Beat Richmond 115–80	9% ▼ 3.7	93% ▲ 0.8	1.9% ▼ 0.6	13.3 –	7.0 –
Hawthorn	Bye	66% ▼ 3.9	100% ▲ 0.1	12.8% ▼ 2.3	15.6 –	4.2 ▼ 0.1
Gold Coast	Lost to Geelong 60–105	1% ▼ 3.3	60% ▼ 7.6	0.4% ▼ 0.7	11.6 ▼ 0.4	9.7 ▼ 0.6
GWS	Lost to St Kilda 88–96	1% ▼ 1.9	51% ▼ 11.1	0.5% ▼ 0.3	11.2 ▼ 0.5	10.3 ▼ 0.8
Western Bulldogs	Lost to Adelaide 64–121	2% ▼ 11.6	81% ▼ 11.4	0.5% ▼ 1.7	12.7 ▼ 0.9	8.5 ▼ 1.5

2026 Round 15, replayed by our model. Arrows show the change from before the round; for finish, up means a higher spot.
Club	Result	Top 4	Finals	Flag	Proj. wins	Proj. finish
Hawthorn	Beat Gold Coast 113–97	80% ▲ 13.4	100% ▲ 0.3	15.4% ▲ 2.6	16.2 ▲ 0.6	3.6 ▲ 0.6
Carlton	Beat GWS 88–65	0% ▲ 0.1	41% ▲ 20.7	0.2% ▲ 0.1	10.9 ▲ 0.9	10.9 ▲ 1.3
Western Bulldogs	Beat St Kilda 83–61	4% ▲ 1.6	92% ▲ 11.0	1.0% ▲ 0.5	13.3 ▲ 0.6	7.6 ▲ 0.9
Collingwood	Beat Port Adelaide 78–52	1% ▼ 0.1	53% ▲ 11.0	0.5% –	11.2 ▲ 0.3	10.3 ▲ 0.5
North Melbourne	Beat Richmond 73–48	0% –	11% ▲ 3.4	0.0% –	9.6 ▲ 0.4	13.0 ▲ 0.4
Adelaide	Beat Melbourne 79–62	43% ▲ 2.1	100% ▲ 0.4	7.5% ▲ 0.1	15.1 ▲ 0.2	4.7 ▲ 0.2
Sydney	Bye	98% ▼ 0.4	100% –	21.1% ▲ 0.2	18.1 –	2.0 ▼ 0.1
Essendon	Bye	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	2.9 –	17.4 ▲ 0.2
Richmond	Lost to North Melbourne 48–73	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	3.4 ▼ 0.5	17.4 ▼ 0.2
West Coast	Bye	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	5.7 ▼ 0.1	16.0 ▲ 0.1
Fremantle	Beat Geelong 99–90	100% ▲ 0.4	100% –	28.1% ▼ 0.2	19.5 ▲ 0.4	1.3 ▲ 0.2
Brisbane	Bye	8% ▼ 1.2	94% ▲ 1.2	1.8% ▼ 0.1	13.3 –	7.0 –
Port Adelaide	Lost to Collingwood 52–78	0% –	1% ▼ 1.2	0.0% –	7.6 ▼ 0.2	14.5 ▼ 0.3
Melbourne	Lost to Adelaide 62–79	4% ▼ 3.6	89% –	1.1% ▼ 0.4	12.9 ▼ 0.2	7.9 ▼ 0.3
Gold Coast	Lost to Hawthorn 97–113	0% ▼ 1.1	48% ▼ 11.7	0.3% ▼ 0.1	11.0 ▼ 0.6	10.5 ▼ 0.8
St Kilda	Lost to Western Bulldogs 61–83	0% ▼ 0.3	42% ▼ 14.7	0.1% ▼ 0.3	10.6 ▼ 0.6	11.0 ▼ 0.9
Geelong	Lost to Fremantle 90–99	64% ▼ 10.3	100% ▼ 0.1	22.6% ▼ 2.2	15.3 ▼ 0.4	4.3 ▼ 0.4
GWS	Lost to Carlton 65–88	0% ▼ 0.7	31% ▼ 20.2	0.1% ▼ 0.4	10.3 ▼ 0.9	11.5 ▼ 1.2

2026 Round 16, replayed by our model. Arrows show the change from before the round; for finish, up means a higher spot.
Club	Result	Top 4	Finals	Flag	Proj. wins	Proj. finish
Brisbane	Beat Sydney 126–83	18% ▲ 9.9	98% ▲ 4.4	4.3% ▲ 2.5	14.0 ▲ 0.7	6.0 ▲ 1.0
Geelong	Bye	70% ▲ 6.5	100% ▲ 0.1	24.6% ▲ 2.0	15.3 –	4.2 ▲ 0.1
Hawthorn	Beat GWS 96–82	87% ▲ 7.3	100% –	16.9% ▲ 1.5	16.4 ▲ 0.2	3.3 ▲ 0.3
Fremantle	Beat Gold Coast 80–29	100% ▲ 0.3	100% –	30.7% ▲ 2.6	19.9 ▲ 0.4	1.1 ▲ 0.2
Carlton	Beat West Coast 117–64	0% –	45% ▲ 3.9	0.4% ▲ 0.2	11.1 ▲ 0.2	10.8 ▲ 0.1
North Melbourne	Beat Essendon 79–65	0% –	14% ▲ 3.5	0.0% –	10.0 ▲ 0.4	12.8 ▲ 0.2
Port Adelaide	Beat Adelaide 97–71	0% –	5% ▲ 3.4	0.0% –	8.5 ▲ 0.9	13.9 ▲ 0.6
Collingwood	Beat Richmond 106–72	1% ▲ 0.1	55% ▲ 2.0	0.5% –	11.3 ▲ 0.1	10.2 ▲ 0.1
Western Bulldogs	Bye	5% ▲ 1.1	92% ▲ 0.8	0.8% ▼ 0.2	13.3 –	7.6 –
Essendon	Lost to North Melbourne 65–79	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	2.5 ▼ 0.4	17.6 ▼ 0.2
Richmond	Lost to Collingwood 72–106	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	3.4 –	17.3 ▲ 0.1
St Kilda	Bye	0% –	42% ▼ 0.3	0.2% ▲ 0.1	10.6 –	11.1 ▼ 0.1
West Coast	Lost to Carlton 64–117	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	5.5 ▼ 0.2	16.1 ▼ 0.1
Melbourne	Bye	4% ▲ 0.5	88% ▼ 1.2	1.1% –	12.8 ▼ 0.1	8.0 ▼ 0.1
GWS	Lost to Hawthorn 82–96	0% –	25% ▼ 5.3	0.2% ▲ 0.1	10.1 ▼ 0.2	11.9 ▼ 0.4
Gold Coast	Lost to Fremantle 29–80	0% ▼ 0.2	38% ▼ 10.4	0.1% ▼ 0.2	10.7 ▼ 0.3	11.2 ▼ 0.7
Sydney	Lost to Brisbane 83–126	97% ▼ 0.6	100% –	16.3% ▼ 4.8	17.4 ▼ 0.7	2.4 ▼ 0.4
Adelaide	Lost to Port Adelaide 71–97	19% ▼ 24.8	99% ▼ 0.9	3.9% ▼ 3.6	14.2 ▼ 0.9	5.7 ▼ 1.0

2026 Round 17, replayed by our model. Arrows show the change from before the round; for finish, up means a higher spot.
Club	Result	Top 4	Finals	Flag	Proj. wins	Proj. finish
Brisbane	Beat Geelong 123–101	52% ▲ 34.3	100% ▲ 1.6	10.5% ▲ 6.2	15.0 ▲ 1.0	4.7 ▲ 1.3
Melbourne	Beat Hawthorn 125–90	16% ▲ 11.6	97% ▲ 9.3	3.4% ▲ 2.3	13.9 ▲ 1.1	6.6 ▲ 1.4
Sydney	Beat Western Bulldogs 90–55	99% ▲ 1.8	100% –	22.4% ▲ 6.1	17.7 ▲ 0.3	1.9 ▲ 0.5
Collingwood	Beat Gold Coast 104–98	2% ▲ 1.2	70% ▲ 14.9	0.9% ▲ 0.4	12.0 ▲ 0.7	9.4 ▲ 0.8
GWS	Beat Fremantle 109–88	0% ▼ 0.1	40% ▲ 14.9	0.3% ▲ 0.1	11.0 ▲ 0.9	10.9 ▲ 1.0
Adelaide	Beat West Coast 99–74	28% ▲ 9.7	99% ▲ 0.2	5.1% ▲ 1.2	14.4 ▲ 0.2	5.6 ▲ 0.1
St Kilda	Beat Essendon 117–50	0% ▲ 0.1	50% ▲ 8.6	0.2% –	11.1 ▲ 0.5	10.6 ▲ 0.5
Essendon	Lost to St Kilda 50–117	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	2.1 ▼ 0.4	17.7 ▼ 0.1
Richmond	Lost to Carlton 72–74	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	3.3 ▼ 0.1	17.2 ▲ 0.1
West Coast	Lost to Adelaide 74–99	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	5.3 ▼ 0.2	16.1 –
Fremantle	Lost to GWS 88–109	100% ▼ 0.1	100% –	30.2% ▼ 0.5	19.0 ▼ 0.9	1.3 ▼ 0.2
Port Adelaide	Beat North Melbourne 73–52	0% –	3% ▼ 1.9	0.0% –	8.7 ▲ 0.2	13.9 –
North Melbourne	Lost to Port Adelaide 52–73	0% –	6% ▼ 7.7	0.0% –	9.7 ▼ 0.3	13.4 ▼ 0.6
Western Bulldogs	Lost to Sydney 55–90	3% ▼ 2.0	86% ▼ 6.6	0.7% ▼ 0.1	13.0 ▼ 0.3	8.4 ▼ 0.8
Carlton	Beat Richmond 74–72	0% –	36% ▼ 9.2	0.2% ▼ 0.2	11.1 –	11.2 ▼ 0.4
Gold Coast	Lost to Collingwood 98–104	0% ▼ 0.1	14% ▼ 23.4	0.1% –	9.9 ▼ 0.8	12.6 ▼ 1.4
Hawthorn	Lost to Melbourne 90–125	64% ▼ 22.4	100% ▼ 0.1	10.5% ▼ 6.4	15.4 ▼ 1.0	4.2 ▼ 0.9
Geelong	Lost to Brisbane 101–123	36% ▼ 34.1	99% ▼ 0.7	15.4% ▼ 9.2	14.3 ▼ 1.0	5.3 ▼ 1.1

2026 Round 18, replayed by our model. Arrows show the change from before the round; for finish, up means a higher spot.
Club	Result	Top 4	Finals	Flag	Proj. wins	Proj. finish
Hawthorn	Beat Carlton 103–39	79% ▲ 14.7	100% ▲ 0.1	16.8% ▲ 6.3	15.9 ▲ 0.5	3.6 ▲ 0.6
Adelaide	Beat Gold Coast 128–49	41% ▲ 12.6	100% ▲ 0.8	8.3% ▲ 3.2	14.9 ▲ 0.5	4.9 ▲ 0.7
GWS	Beat Geelong 86–73	0% –	59% ▲ 19.3	0.5% ▲ 0.2	11.6 ▲ 0.6	10.0 ▲ 0.9
Brisbane	Beat Essendon 149–59	56% ▲ 3.7	100% ▲ 0.2	12.6% ▲ 2.1	15.3 ▲ 0.3	4.5 ▲ 0.2
Fremantle	Beat Sydney 111–73	100% ▲ 0.1	100% –	33.2% ▲ 3.0	19.4 ▲ 0.4	1.1 ▲ 0.2
St Kilda	Beat Port Adelaide 87–73	0% ▼ 0.1	58% ▲ 7.8	0.3% ▲ 0.1	11.5 ▲ 0.4	10.1 ▲ 0.5
Collingwood	Beat North Melbourne 89–85	1% ▼ 0.4	75% ▲ 4.8	0.8% ▼ 0.1	12.2 ▲ 0.2	9.2 ▲ 0.2
Essendon	Lost to Brisbane 59–149	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	1.9 ▼ 0.2	17.7 –
Richmond	Lost to Melbourne 65–111	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	3.1 ▼ 0.2	17.2 –
West Coast	Lost to Western Bulldogs 70–86	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	5.2 ▼ 0.1	16.0 ▲ 0.1
Western Bulldogs	Beat West Coast 86–70	2% ▼ 0.8	87% ▲ 1.6	0.4% ▼ 0.3	13.1 ▲ 0.1	8.4 –
Port Adelaide	Lost to St Kilda 73–87	0% –	1% ▼ 2.2	0.0% –	8.4 ▼ 0.3	14.0 ▼ 0.1
North Melbourne	Lost to Collingwood 85–89	0% –	3% ▼ 3.7	0.0% –	9.4 ▼ 0.3	13.5 ▼ 0.1
Melbourne	Beat Richmond 111–65	14% ▼ 2.1	98% ▲ 1.0	2.5% ▼ 0.9	14.2 ▲ 0.3	6.5 ▲ 0.1
Gold Coast	Lost to Adelaide 49–128	0% –	5% ▼ 9.7	0.0% ▼ 0.1	9.4 ▼ 0.5	13.1 ▼ 0.5
Sydney	Lost to Fremantle 73–111	97% ▼ 1.8	100% –	17.1% ▼ 5.3	17.3 ▼ 0.4	2.3 ▼ 0.4
Carlton	Lost to Hawthorn 39–103	0% ▼ 0.1	16% ▼ 19.4	0.1% ▼ 0.1	10.4 ▼ 0.7	12.1 ▼ 0.9
Geelong	Lost to GWS 73–86	11% ▼ 25.7	99% ▼ 0.5	7.4% ▼ 8.0	13.7 ▼ 0.6	6.5 ▼ 1.2

2026 Round 19, replayed by our model. Arrows show the change from before the round; for finish, up means a higher spot.
Club	Result	Top 4	Finals	Flag	Proj. wins	Proj. finish
Adelaide	Beat Sydney 87–71	63% ▲ 22.1	100% ▲ 0.1	12.4% ▲ 4.1	15.6 ▲ 0.7	4.2 ▲ 0.7
Collingwood	Beat Carlton 90–69	1% ▼ 0.3	94% ▲ 19.2	0.9% ▲ 0.1	12.7 ▲ 0.5	8.7 ▲ 0.5
Western Bulldogs	Beat Gold Coast 77–68	2% –	98% ▲ 10.9	0.6% ▲ 0.2	13.7 ▲ 0.6	7.7 ▲ 0.7
St Kilda	Lost to Geelong 75–102	0% –	64% ▲ 5.7	0.2% ▼ 0.1	11.2 ▼ 0.3	10.3 ▼ 0.2
Essendon	Beat GWS 67–64	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	2.8 ▲ 0.9	17.4 ▲ 0.3
Richmond	Lost to Hawthorn 52–122	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	2.9 ▼ 0.2	17.6 ▼ 0.4
West Coast	Lost to Brisbane 69–93	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	5.1 ▼ 0.1	16.0 –
Port Adelaide	Lost to Fremantle 75–103	0% –	1% ▼ 0.1	0.0% –	8.0 ▼ 0.4	14.0 –
Fremantle	Beat Port Adelaide 103–75	100% –	100% –	33.1% ▼ 0.1	19.8 ▲ 0.4	1.0 ▲ 0.1
Geelong	Beat St Kilda 102–75	8% ▼ 2.5	100% ▲ 1.1	7.7% ▲ 0.3	13.9 ▲ 0.2	6.5 –
Hawthorn	Beat Richmond 122–52	76% ▼ 3.1	100% –	17.6% ▲ 0.8	16.1 ▲ 0.2	3.5 ▲ 0.1
North Melbourne	Lost to Melbourne 76–92	0% –	2% ▼ 0.7	0.0% –	9.2 ▼ 0.2	13.5 –
Melbourne	Beat North Melbourne 92–76	11% ▼ 2.5	100% ▲ 1.7	2.5% –	14.4 ▲ 0.2	6.5 –
Gold Coast	Lost to Western Bulldogs 68–77	0% –	2% ▼ 2.4	0.0% –	8.8 ▼ 0.6	13.4 ▼ 0.3
Carlton	Lost to Collingwood 69–90	0% –	10% ▼ 5.9	0.0% ▼ 0.1	10.0 ▼ 0.4	12.3 ▼ 0.2
Sydney	Lost to Adelaide 71–87	93% ▼ 4.1	100% –	14.5% ▼ 2.6	16.6 ▼ 0.7	2.7 ▼ 0.4
Brisbane	Beat West Coast 93–69	46% ▼ 9.7	100% –	10.5% ▼ 2.1	15.4 ▲ 0.1	4.7 ▼ 0.2
GWS	Lost to Essendon 64–67	0% –	30% ▼ 29.7	0.1% ▼ 0.4	10.7 ▼ 0.9	11.0 ▼ 1.0

2026 Round 20, replayed by our model. Arrows show the change from before the round; for finish, up means a higher spot.
Club	Result	Top 4	Finals	Flag	Proj. wins	Proj. finish
Hawthorn	Beat Essendon 132–39	89% ▲ 12.8	100% –	22.1% ▲ 4.5	16.3 ▲ 0.2	3.3 ▲ 0.2
Brisbane	Beat Port Adelaide 126–67	63% ▲ 17.5	100% –	13.2% ▲ 2.7	15.6 ▲ 0.2	4.3 ▲ 0.4
St Kilda	Beat North Melbourne 93–62	0% –	80% ▲ 16.3	0.1% ▼ 0.1	11.6 ▲ 0.4	10.0 ▲ 0.3
Sydney	Beat GWS 139–88	99% ▲ 6.1	100% –	16.7% ▲ 2.2	17.1 ▲ 0.5	2.3 ▲ 0.4
Geelong	Beat Melbourne 117–97	17% ▲ 8.6	100% ▲ 0.1	8.7% ▲ 1.0	14.3 ▲ 0.4	6.0 ▲ 0.5
Collingwood	Beat Adelaide 108–74	4% ▲ 2.4	100% ▲ 5.9	1.5% ▲ 0.6	13.5 ▲ 0.8	7.8 ▲ 0.9
Carlton	Beat Gold Coast 110–97	0% –	12% ▲ 1.9	0.0% –	10.4 ▲ 0.4	11.7 ▲ 0.6
Western Bulldogs	Beat Richmond 105–48	3% ▲ 0.7	99% ▲ 0.9	0.5% ▼ 0.1	13.9 ▲ 0.2	7.7 –
Essendon	Lost to Hawthorn 39–132	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	2.7 ▼ 0.1	17.4 –
Richmond	Lost to Western Bulldogs 48–105	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	2.8 ▼ 0.1	17.6 –
West Coast	Lost to Fremantle 42–112	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	5.0 ▼ 0.1	16.0 –
Port Adelaide	Lost to Brisbane 67–126	0% –	0% ▼ 0.6	0.0% –	7.8 ▼ 0.2	14.0 –
Gold Coast	Lost to Carlton 97–110	0% –	0% ▼ 1.8	0.0% –	8.4 ▼ 0.4	13.7 ▼ 0.3
North Melbourne	Lost to St Kilda 62–93	0% –	0% ▼ 1.8	0.0% –	8.7 ▼ 0.5	13.8 ▼ 0.3
Fremantle	Beat West Coast 112–42	100% –	100% –	32.3% ▼ 0.8	19.9 ▲ 0.1	1.0 –
Melbourne	Lost to Geelong 97–117	5% ▼ 6.0	100% ▲ 0.1	1.3% ▼ 1.2	14.0 ▼ 0.4	7.2 ▼ 0.7
GWS	Lost to Sydney 88–139	0% –	9% ▼ 21.1	0.0% ▼ 0.1	10.3 ▼ 0.4	11.5 ▼ 0.5
Adelaide	Lost to Collingwood 74–108	21% ▼ 42.1	100% –	3.6% ▼ 8.8	14.8 ▼ 0.8	5.6 ▼ 1.4

2026 Round 21, replayed by our model. Arrows show the change from before the round; for finish, up means a higher spot.
Club	Result	Top 4	Finals	Flag	Proj. wins	Proj. finish
Geelong	Beat Collingwood 97–72	41% ▲ 24.7	100% –	15.2% ▲ 6.5	14.7 ▲ 0.4	5.0 ▲ 1.0
Carlton	Beat Brisbane 154–78	0% –	36% ▲ 23.3	0.1% ▲ 0.1	11.3 ▲ 0.9	10.9 ▲ 0.8
Adelaide	Beat Essendon 145–73	33% ▲ 11.9	100% –	6.3% ▲ 2.7	15.0 ▲ 0.2	5.1 ▲ 0.5
GWS	Beat Port Adelaide 75–63	0% –	17% ▲ 8.3	0.0% –	10.8 ▲ 0.5	11.2 ▲ 0.3
Melbourne	Beat Gold Coast 114–105	11% ▲ 5.9	100% ▲ 0.2	2.0% ▲ 0.7	14.5 ▲ 0.5	6.5 ▲ 0.7
Sydney	Beat St Kilda 107–88	100% ▲ 0.8	100% –	18.8% ▲ 2.1	17.6 ▲ 0.5	2.1 ▲ 0.2
Hawthorn	Beat North Melbourne 99–83	94% ▲ 5.5	100% –	20.5% ▼ 1.6	16.4 ▲ 0.1	3.2 ▲ 0.1
Fremantle	Beat Western Bulldogs 78–41	100% –	100% –	32.4% ▲ 0.1	20.0 ▲ 0.1	1.0 –
Essendon	Lost to Adelaide 73–145	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	2.4 ▼ 0.3	17.7 ▼ 0.3
Port Adelaide	Lost to GWS 63–75	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	7.3 ▼ 0.5	14.3 ▼ 0.3
Richmond	Beat West Coast 84–73	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	3.3 ▲ 0.5	17.3 ▲ 0.3
West Coast	Lost to Richmond 73–84	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	4.5 ▼ 0.5	16.0 –
North Melbourne	Lost to Hawthorn 83–99	0% –	0% ▼ 0.1	0.0% –	8.6 ▼ 0.1	13.6 ▲ 0.2
Gold Coast	Lost to Melbourne 105–114	0% –	0% ▼ 0.3	0.0% –	7.9 ▼ 0.5	14.0 ▼ 0.3
Western Bulldogs	Lost to Fremantle 41–78	0% ▼ 2.1	99% ▼ 0.6	0.4% ▼ 0.1	13.6 ▼ 0.3	8.1 ▼ 0.4
Collingwood	Lost to Geelong 72–97	0% ▼ 3.3	99% ▼ 0.5	0.9% ▼ 0.6	13.2 ▼ 0.3	8.4 ▼ 0.6
St Kilda	Lost to Sydney 88–107	0% –	50% ▼ 30.2	0.1% –	11.0 ▼ 0.6	10.7 ▼ 0.7
Brisbane	Lost to Carlton 78–154	20% ▼ 43.4	100% –	3.3% ▼ 9.9	14.7 ▼ 0.9	5.8 ▼ 1.5

2026 Round 22, replayed by our model. Arrows show the change from before the round; for finish, up means a higher spot.
Club	Result	Top 4	Finals	Flag	Proj. wins	Proj. finish
Carlton	Beat St Kilda 106–62	0% –	83% ▲ 47.0	0.4% ▲ 0.3	11.9 ▲ 0.6	9.7 ▲ 1.2
Brisbane	Beat Hawthorn 125–58	43% ▲ 23.1	100% –	8.3% ▲ 5.0	15.3 ▲ 0.6	5.0 ▲ 0.8
Melbourne	Beat Fremantle 113–109	30% ▲ 19.1	100% –	3.5% ▲ 1.5	15.3 ▲ 0.8	5.5 ▲ 1.0
Sydney	Beat Port Adelaide 167–70	100% ▲ 0.2	100% –	26.2% ▲ 7.4	17.8 ▲ 0.2	2.0 ▲ 0.1
Collingwood	Beat West Coast 117–98	0% ▼ 0.1	100% ▲ 0.8	0.8% ▼ 0.1	13.4 ▲ 0.2	8.1 ▲ 0.3
Western Bulldogs	Lost to North Melbourne 77–100	0% ▼ 0.4	100% ▲ 1.4	0.2% ▼ 0.2	12.8 ▼ 0.8	9.1 ▼ 1.0
Essendon	Lost to Geelong 50–117	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	2.4 –	17.7 –
Gold Coast	Beat GWS 79–77	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	8.6 ▲ 0.7	13.7 ▲ 0.3
North Melbourne	Beat Western Bulldogs 100–77	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	9.3 ▲ 0.7	13.3 ▲ 0.3
Port Adelaide	Lost to Sydney 70–167	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	7.1 ▼ 0.2	14.9 ▼ 0.6
Richmond	Lost to Adelaide 54–63	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	3.3 –	17.2 ▲ 0.1
West Coast	Lost to Collingwood 98–117	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	4.3 ▼ 0.2	16.0 –
Fremantle	Lost to Melbourne 109–113	100% –	100% –	32.3% ▼ 0.1	19.4 ▼ 0.6	1.0 –
GWS	Lost to Gold Coast 77–79	0% –	4% ▼ 13.0	0.0% –	10.1 ▼ 0.7	11.8 ▼ 0.6
Adelaide	Beat Richmond 63–54	19% ▼ 13.7	100% –	3.2% ▼ 3.1	15.0 –	5.7 ▼ 0.6
Geelong	Beat Essendon 117–50	25% ▼ 16.4	100% –	12.8% ▼ 2.4	14.7 –	5.4 ▼ 0.4
Hawthorn	Lost to Brisbane 58–125	83% ▼ 11.8	100% –	12.4% ▼ 8.1	15.9 ▼ 0.5	3.7 ▼ 0.5
St Kilda	Lost to Carlton 62–106	0% –	14% ▼ 36.2	0.0% ▼ 0.1	10.4 ▼ 0.6	11.2 ▼ 0.5

2026 Round 23, replayed by our model. Arrows show the change from before the round; for finish, up means a higher spot.
Club	Result	Top 4	Finals	Flag	Proj. wins	Proj. finish
Melbourne	Beat Port Adelaide 132–56	42% ▲ 11.3	100% –	6.3% ▲ 2.8	15.7 ▲ 0.4	5.0 ▲ 0.5
Carlton	Drew with Western Bulldogs 82–82	0% –	100% ▲ 17.5	0.4% –	11.9 –	9.7 –
Brisbane	Beat Gold Coast 95–53	53% ▲ 9.5	100% –	10.1% ▲ 1.8	15.5 ▲ 0.2	4.5 ▲ 0.5
Hawthorn	Drew with Collingwood 92–92	83% ▲ 0.3	100% –	12.5% ▲ 0.1	15.8 ▼ 0.1	3.8 ▼ 0.1
Essendon	Lost to Sydney 76–112	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	2.4 –	17.6 ▲ 0.1
Gold Coast	Lost to Brisbane 53–95	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	8.3 ▼ 0.3	13.7 –
North Melbourne	Lost to Geelong 110–125	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	9.1 ▼ 0.2	13.3 –
Port Adelaide	Lost to Melbourne 56–132	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	6.6 ▼ 0.5	15.0 ▼ 0.1
Richmond	Lost to St Kilda 45–94	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	3.0 ▼ 0.3	17.4 ▼ 0.2
West Coast	Lost to GWS 57–111	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	4.2 ▼ 0.1	16.0 –
Western Bulldogs	Drew with Carlton 82–82	0% –	100% –	0.2% –	12.8 –	9.1 –
Collingwood	Drew with Hawthorn 92–92	0% ▼ 0.1	100% –	0.8% –	13.5 ▲ 0.1	8.1 –
Sydney	Beat Essendon 112–76	100% –	100% –	26.0% ▼ 0.2	17.9 ▲ 0.1	2.0 –
Fremantle	Beat Adelaide 112–88	100% –	100% –	31.2% ▼ 1.1	19.6 ▲ 0.2	1.0 –
GWS	Beat West Coast 111–57	0% –	0% ▼ 3.9	0.0% –	10.3 ▲ 0.2	11.9 ▼ 0.1
Geelong	Beat North Melbourne 125–110	22% ▼ 2.7	100% –	11.4% ▼ 1.4	15.0 ▲ 0.3	5.1 ▲ 0.3
St Kilda	Beat Richmond 94–45	0% –	0% ▼ 13.6	0.0% –	10.7 ▲ 0.3	11.1 ▲ 0.1
Adelaide	Lost to Fremantle 88–112	1% ▼ 18.3	100% –	1.0% ▼ 2.2	14.7 ▼ 0.3	6.6 ▼ 0.9

Our model replayed 2026 Round 24. Arrows show how things changed since before the round. For finish, an upward arrow means a higher position.
Club	Result	Top 4	Finals	Flag	Proj. wins	Proj. finish
Brisbane	Beat Collingwood 159–96	100% ▲ 47.4	100% –	22.2% ▲ 12.1	16.0 ▲ 0.5	3.0 ▲ 1.5
Hawthorn	Beat West Coast 107–45	100% ▲ 17.2	100% –	15.3% ▲ 2.8	16.0 ▲ 0.2	4.0 ▼ 0.2
Adelaide	Beat GWS 157–101	0% ▼ 0.8	100% –	2.8% ▲ 1.8	15.0 ▲ 0.3	6.0 ▲ 0.6
Sydney	Beat North Melbourne 123–70	100% –	100% –	26.8% ▲ 0.8	18.0 ▲ 0.1	2.0 –
Carlton	Beat Fremantle 119–82	0% –	100% –	0.6% ▲ 0.2	12.5 ▲ 0.6	10.0 ▼ 0.3
Essendon	Lost to Port Adelaide 95–104	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	2.0 ▼ 0.4	18.0 ▼ 0.4
Gold Coast	Beat St Kilda 103–80	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	9.0 ▲ 0.7	13.0 ▲ 0.7
GWS	Lost to Adelaide 101–157	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	10.0 ▼ 0.3	12.0 ▼ 0.1
North Melbourne	Lost to Sydney 70–123	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	9.0 ▼ 0.1	14.0 ▼ 0.7
Port Adelaide	Beat Essendon 104–95	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	7.0 ▲ 0.4	15.0 –
Richmond	Lost to Geelong 76–133	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	3.0 –	17.0 ▲ 0.4
St Kilda	Lost to Gold Coast 80–103	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	10.0 ▼ 0.7	11.0 ▲ 0.1
West Coast	Lost to Hawthorn 45–107	0% –	0% –	0.0% –	4.0 ▼ 0.2	16.0 –
Western Bulldogs	Beat Melbourne 108–87	0% –	100% –	0.2% –	13.5 ▲ 0.7	8.0 ▲ 1.1
Collingwood	Lost to Brisbane 96–159	0% –	100% –	0.2% ▼ 0.6	13.0 ▼ 0.5	9.0 ▼ 0.9
Fremantle	Lost to Carlton 82–119	100% –	100% –	23.7% ▼ 7.5	19.0 ▼ 0.6	1.0 –
Geelong	Beat Richmond 133–76	0% ▼ 22.3	100% –	7.7% ▼ 3.7	15.0 –	5.0 ▲ 0.1
Melbourne	Lost to Western Bulldogs 87–108	0% ▼ 41.5	100% –	0.4% ▼ 5.9	15.0 ▼ 0.7	7.0 ▼ 2.0

How the model makes tips

Each club has two numbers. One shows points scored above an average side. The other shows points kept out. To get a game's expected score, add one side's attack to the league average, then subtract the other side's defence.

The home side gains an edge by playing where it plays most often, and by making the other club travel interstate. Once a game is done, both ratings shift a little toward what really happened; in the off-season each rating is drawn back toward the middle, since lists change.

An expected margin becomes a win chance. The ladder and flag odds come from 20,000 simulated seasons of the fixture. It was tested on 2,476 games played between 2015 and 2026, picking 68.3% of winners correctly, with an average margin error of 27.0 points.

Scoring for tipsters

Tips

Each correctly tipped winner earns one point, using the same method the Squiggle API applies to every model.

Bits

Correct confidence earns rewards, while incorrect confidence is punished. A tip at 50% brings zero points; a right call at 80% earns about 0.68, and a wrong call at 80% loses about 1.32. Across a season, this shows who knows how confident they should be.

The margin error

Margin error is the point gap between the tipped margin and the actual margin. This is averaged across the season. A lower error is better. In 2026, the strongest models were near 24.6 points.

See every model graded