afl-tips.com

AFL Ladder Predictions 2027

Sydney tops our projected ladder with 15.1 wins. In each bar, a club's possible finish comes from 20,000 simulated seasons run on the real fixture.

AFL ladder predictions 2027: an empty suburban oval before the season
#ClubWinsLikely wins%Finish range 1 to 18Top 4Top 10Grand finalFlag
1Sydney15.111–19118.8
Most likely between 1 and 10		56%91%30.4%14.7%
2Fremantle14.711–18118.6
Most likely between 1 and 11		52%89%27.3%12.6%
3Geelong14.611–18116.7
Most likely between 1 and 11		48%88%26.4%15.5%
4Brisbane14.411–18115.3
Most likely between 1 and 11		46%87%26.3%13.1%
5Hawthorn14.010–18113.4
Most likely between 1 and 12		40%83%20.2%11.9%
6Adelaide13.49.5–17110.4
Most likely between 2 and 13		33%79%15.7%6.7%
7Carlton12.79–17107.0
Most likely between 2 and 14		26%71%11.3%6.0%
8Melbourne12.48.5–16105.5
Most likely between 3 and 14		22%68%10.6%5.7%
9Collingwood11.98–16102.7
Most likely between 3 and 15		17%61%7.6%3.9%
10Western Bulldogs11.88–16102.2
Most likely between 3 and 15		17%59%7.5%3.3%
11GWS11.37.5–15100.0
Most likely between 4 and 15		13%53%5.3%2.2%
12St Kilda10.97–1598.1
Most likely between 4 and 16		10%48%4.5%1.9%
13Gold Coast10.87–1597.9
Most likely between 4 and 16		10%47%4.1%1.5%
14North Melbourne9.66–13.592.3
Most likely between 6 and 17		5%32%1.6%0.7%
15Port Adelaide9.15–1389.8
Most likely between 7 and 17		3%25%1.0%0.3%
16West Coast7.14–1180.5
Most likely between 11 and 18		1%8%0.1%0.0%
17Richmond6.93–10.579.1
Most likely between 11 and 18		0%7%0.1%0.1%
18Essendon6.33–1077.6
Most likely between 12 and 18		0%5%0.1%0.0%
We simulate 20,000 seasons game by game using the Squiggle 2027 fixture, then the finals, in our ratings model. Likely wins covers the middle 80% of results.

Ladders from every model, side by side

Other public models publish projected ladders of their own to the Squiggle API. They're placed next to ours here, each marked with the day its model posted it.

Clubafl-tips.comElo Predicts!SquiggleWheelo Ratings
latest4 Nov4 Nov31 Oct
Sydney1 15.1w8 11.5w3 14.4w1 15.1w
Fremantle2 14.7w10 11.0w4 14.2w3 14.6w
Geelong3 14.6w2 17.7w2 14.8w2 15.1w
Brisbane4 14.4w1 20.4w5 13.1w4 14.4w
Hawthorn5 14.0w4 17.2w1 15.5w5 13.8w
Adelaide6 13.4w5 17.2w9 11.8w7 12.9w
Carlton7 12.7w13 8.9w8 12.4w9 11.9w
Melbourne8 12.4w14 7.9w10 11.4w6 13.3w
Collingwood9 11.9w7 16.9w6 12.6w8 12.1w
Western Bulldogs10 11.8w6 17.0w7 12.4w11 11.4w
GWS11 11.3w3 17.3w13 11.2w12 11.4w
St Kilda12 10.9w12 9.0w11 11.4w13 10.7w
Gold Coast13 10.8w9 11.4w12 11.2w10 11.8w
North Melbourne14 9.6w16 2.9w14 9.9w14 9.3w
Port Adelaide15 9.1w11 9.1w15 9.4w15 9.1w
West Coast16 7.1w18 0.7w16 7.9w16 7.6w
Richmond17 6.9w17 2.8w17 7.1w17 6.6w
Essendon18 6.3w15 5.4w18 6.4w18 6.1w
Finish and wins, as projected. Shaded cells are four or more places off our ladder.

Whose ladder was the closest in 2026

On average per club, this shows how many places off the real ladder each model's projected ladder sat, before the season and across every round.

#ModelPre-seasonSeason averageRound by round
1Winnable2.891.26
2AFL Lab3.331.33
3Matter of Stats3.561.35
4Stattraction3.561.37
5Don't Blame the Data3.561.43
6Wheelo Ratings3.441.43
7Informed Stats3.671.47
8The Footycast3.001.47
9Squiggle3.561.48
10PlusSixOne3.781.50
11Graft4.111.52
12Live Ladders3.221.54
13Elo Predicts!3.891.57
14AFLalytics4.221.61
15Glicko Ratings3.561.70
16What Snoo Thinks3.441.78
17ZaphBot4.111.86
The final 2026 ladder is used to calculate the places off for each club; lower is better. The line drops as the season fills in. Projections come from the Squiggle API and are scored by afl-tips.com.

Over to you

Put the 18 clubs in your orderThe 2026 final ladderPower rankings