afl-tips.com

Brisbane Lions vs Essendon Tips

Round 20 2027, Mon 26 Jul, 12:00pm AEST at Gabba: we tip Brisbane Lions by 47 with a 92% win chance.

Our tip
Brisbaneby 47 points
Win chance
92%Brisbane 92.2%, Essendon 7.8%
Predicted score
120–74Brisbane first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

BRIESS

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Brisbane92.2%46.9 pts
Elo Predicts!Brisbane94.7%53.0 pts
s10Brisbane91.4%47.9 pts
SquiggleBrisbane95.9%58.8 pts
StattractionBrisbane90.5%49.2 pts
Wheelo RatingsBrisbane92.3%46.6 pts
Squiggle aggregateBrisbane93.4%51.9 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Brisbane

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Brisbane rate +14.8 overall (1st) and Essendon −22.3 (18th), which leaves Brisbane 47 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Brisbane+17.4−2.6+14.8WLWWW
Essendon−10.7−11.7−22.3LLLLL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
18no draws
Brisbane wins
11
Essendon wins
7
Average margin
37.2points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2017Round 15Marvel StadiumEssendon 82, Brisbane 90Brisbane
2018Round 12GabbaBrisbane 62, Essendon 84Essendon
2019Round 4MCGEssendon 112, Brisbane 65Essendon
2020Round 9People First StadiumEssendon 28, Brisbane 91Brisbane
2021Round 5GabbaBrisbane 102, Essendon 45Brisbane
2022Round 2Marvel StadiumEssendon 75, Brisbane 97Brisbane
2022Round 17GabbaBrisbane 90, Essendon 100Essendon
2023Round 9GabbaBrisbane 87, Essendon 45Brisbane
2024Round 24GabbaBrisbane 87, Essendon 67Brisbane
2025Round 12GabbaBrisbane 90, Essendon 72Brisbane
2026Round 8Marvel StadiumEssendon 79, Brisbane 143Brisbane
2026Round 18GabbaBrisbane 149, Essendon 59Brisbane
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 20 tips Brisbane Lions fixture Essendon fixture