afl-tips.com

Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Tips

Round 7 2027, Thu 29 Apr, 7:30pm AEST at Gabba: we tip Brisbane Lions by 10 with a 62% win chance.

Our tip
Brisbaneby 10 points
Win chance
62%Brisbane 61.9%, Sydney 38.1%
Predicted score
107–97Brisbane first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

BRISYD

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Brisbane61.9%10.0 pts
Elo Predicts!Brisbane83.3%13.0 pts
s10Brisbane59.6%8.2 pts
SquiggleBrisbane51.7%1.7 pts
StattractionBrisbane58.4%7.5 pts
Wheelo RatingsBrisbane60.9%9.0 pts
Squiggle aggregateBrisbane63.6%7.8 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Brisbane

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Brisbane rate +14.8 overall (1st) and Sydney +14.5 (2nd), which leaves Brisbane 10 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Brisbane+17.4−2.6+14.8WLWWW
Sydney+13.0+1.5+14.5WWWWL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
19no draws
Brisbane wins
8
Sydney wins
11
Average margin
32.4points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2019Round 7GabbaBrisbane 103, Sydney 81Brisbane
2020Round 17Cazaly's StadiumSydney 41, Brisbane 73Brisbane
2021Round 1GabbaBrisbane 94, Sydney 125Sydney
2022Round 7SCGSydney 89, Brisbane 113Brisbane
2023Round 14GabbaBrisbane 97, Sydney 81Brisbane
2024Round 19GabbaBrisbane 79, Sydney 77Brisbane
2024Grand FinalMCGSydney 60, Brisbane 120Brisbane
2025Round 1SCGSydney 82, Brisbane 86Brisbane
2025Round 22GabbaBrisbane 90, Sydney 92Sydney
2026Round 1SCGSydney 104, Brisbane 60Sydney
2026Round 16GabbaBrisbane 126, Sydney 83Brisbane
2026Finals Week 1SCGSydney 141, Brisbane 88Sydney
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

They meet again in 2027

Fri 25 Jun7:40pm AEST · SCGSydney62%SYDBRI38%BrisbaneSydney by 10Models 4–1

More on this game

All Round 7 tips Brisbane Lions fixture Sydney fixture