afl-tips.com

Carlton vs Adelaide Tips

Round 20 2027, Mon 26 Jul, 12:00pm AEST at Marvel Stadium: we tip Carlton by 7 with a 58% win chance.

Our tip
Carltonby 7 points
Win chance
58%Carlton 58.2%, Adelaide 41.8%
Predicted score
92–85Carlton first
Models with us
4 of 51 tip Adelaide

Every model on this game

CARADE

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Carlton58.2%6.9 pts
Elo Predicts!Adelaide67.4%21.0 pts
s10Carlton54.4%3.9 pts
SquiggleCarlton65.3%14.6 pts
StattractionCarlton54.0%3.7 pts
Wheelo RatingsCarlton54.9%4.0 pts
Squiggle aggregateCarlton51.7%0.3 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Carlton

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Carlton rate +5.4 overall (7th) and Adelaide +6.8 (6th), which leaves Carlton 7 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Carlton+2.2+3.1+5.4WDWWL
Adelaide+6.2+0.5+6.8WLWWL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
17no draws
Carlton wins
5
Adelaide wins
12
Average margin
36.6points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2017Round 15MCGCarlton 77, Adelaide 89Adelaide
2018Round 7Adelaide OvalAdelaide 125, Carlton 70Adelaide
2018Round 23Marvel StadiumCarlton 61, Adelaide 165Adelaide
2019Round 19MCGCarlton 87, Adelaide 60Carlton
2020Round 17People First StadiumCarlton 56, Adelaide 72Adelaide
2021Round 15Marvel StadiumCarlton 83, Adelaide 73Carlton
2022Round 8Marvel StadiumCarlton 116, Adelaide 68Carlton
2022Round 20Adelaide OvalAdelaide 84, Carlton 55Adelaide
2023Round 5Adelaide OvalAdelaide 118, Carlton 62Adelaide
2024Round 5Marvel StadiumCarlton 98, Adelaide 100Adelaide
2025Round 8Adelaide OvalAdelaide 110, Carlton 50Adelaide
2026Round 5Adelaide OvalAdelaide 114, Carlton 86Adelaide
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 20 tips Carlton fixture Adelaide fixture