afl-tips.com

Carlton vs Western Bulldogs Tips

We tip Carlton for Round 9 2027 at MCG, Sun 16 May, 3: 15pm AEST, with a 58% win chance and a 7-point margin.

Match pick
Carltonby 7 points
Win chance
58%, followed by Carlton 58.3% and Western Bulldogs 41.7%
Score prediction
89–82Carlton first
Models backing us
4 of 51 tip Western Bulldogs

Every model for this game

CARWBD

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Carlton58.3%6.9 pts
Elo Predicts!Western Bulldogs70.8%18.0 pts
s10Carlton55.4%4.6 pts
SquiggleCarlton51.4%1.3 pts
StattractionCarlton56.2%5.4 pts
Wheelo RatingsCarlton54.7%3.9 pts
Squiggle aggregateWestern Bulldogs52.1%1.9 pts
Win chance applies to each source's chosen club. Public model tips come from the Squiggle API; the combined result is Squiggle's average across all models. Grading happens after the siren.

What leads us to tip Carlton

Each club's attack and defence are rated using points against an average side. Our ratings also account for home ground and travel in this game.

Carlton's overall rating is +5.4 (7th), while Western Bulldogs have +1.8 (9th), leaving Carlton 7 points ahead on the day.

Over 2,476 games between 2015 and 2026, this model got 68.3% of tips correct. Its average margin error was 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Carlton+2.2+3.1+5.4WDWWL
Western Bulldogs+0.1+1.7+1.8LDWWL
These are points per game against an average side at the start of 2027. The form figures cover the latest five games from 2026, with the most recent on the right.

Meetings since 2012

Meetings
181 drawn
Carlton wins
6
Western Bulldogs wins
11
Average point margin
20.0points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2018Round 6Marvel StadiumWestern Bulldogs 80, Carlton 59Western Bulldogs
2018Round 22Marvel StadiumCarlton 49, Western Bulldogs 66Western Bulldogs
2019Round 5Marvel StadiumWestern Bulldogs 57, Carlton 101Carlton
2019Round 13Marvel StadiumCarlton 100, Western Bulldogs 103Western Bulldogs
2020Round 6People First StadiumCarlton 103, Western Bulldogs 51Carlton
2021Round 8Marvel StadiumWestern Bulldogs 107, Carlton 91Western Bulldogs
2022Round 2Marvel StadiumWestern Bulldogs 90, Carlton 102Carlton
2023Round 9Marvel StadiumCarlton 59, Western Bulldogs 79Western Bulldogs
2024Round 18Marvel StadiumWestern Bulldogs 100, Carlton 86Western Bulldogs
2025Round 3Marvel StadiumCarlton 75, Western Bulldogs 83Western Bulldogs
2026Round 10Marvel StadiumCarlton 74, Western Bulldogs 62Carlton
2026Round 23Marvel StadiumWestern Bulldogs 82, Carlton 82Draw
Most recent meetings appear first. The results come from the Squiggle API.

Additional game information

All Round 9 tips Carlton fixture Western Bulldogs fixture