afl-tips.com

Collingwood vs Hawthorn Tips

Hawthorn receives a 60% win chance in our Round 12 2027 forecast at MCG, with a predicted margin of 9. The game begins Fri 4 Jun, 7∶40pm AEST.

The pick we make
Hawthornby 9 points
Win chance
Collingwood 39.6%, Hawthorn 60.4%, 60%
Score forecast
86–95Collingwood first
Models backing our tip
5 of 5every public model agrees

All models for this game

COLHAW

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Hawthorn60.4%8.7 pts
Elo Predicts!Hawthorn53.8%5.0 pts
s10Hawthorn62.8%11.3 pts
SquiggleHawthorn69.1%18.3 pts
StattractionHawthorn66.1%14.8 pts
Wheelo RatingsHawthorn59.5%7.9 pts
Squiggle aggregateHawthorn62.2%11.5 pts
Each source's win chance applies to the club it tips. The Squiggle API supplies public model tips, while the combined figure is Squiggle's average of all models. Results are graded after the siren.

Why our pick is Hawthorn

Each club's attack and defence are rated using points against an average side. Our figures add the home ground and travel for this game.

An overall rating of +0.9 puts Collingwood 10th, compared with Hawthorn's +11.6 in 5th. This puts Hawthorn 9 points better on the day.

From 2015 to 2026, the model made tips for over 2,476 games and got 68.3% right. Its average margin error was 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Collingwood+3.0−2.1+0.9LWDLL
Hawthorn+7.1+4.4+11.6LDWWL
These figures show points per game against an average side at the start of 2027. Form covers the last five games of 2026, with the latest on the right.

Head-to-head results since 2012

Meetings
232 drawn
Wins for Collingwood
5
Wins for Hawthorn
16
Margin on average
28.5points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2018Round 1MCGHawthorn 101, Collingwood 67Hawthorn
2019Round 16MCGHawthorn 67, Collingwood 63Hawthorn
2020Round 6Sydney ShowgroundCollingwood 59, Hawthorn 27Collingwood
2021Round 21MCGHawthorn 97, Collingwood 78Hawthorn
2022Round 12MCGHawthorn 68, Collingwood 72Collingwood
2023Round 21MCGHawthorn 105, Collingwood 73Hawthorn
2024Round 4Adelaide OvalCollingwood 77, Hawthorn 72Collingwood
2024Round 19MCGHawthorn 133, Collingwood 67Hawthorn
2025Round 12MCGCollingwood 107, Hawthorn 56Collingwood
2025Round 22MCGHawthorn 110, Collingwood 46Hawthorn
2026Round 8MCGCollingwood 93, Hawthorn 93Draw
2026Round 23MCGHawthorn 92, Collingwood 92Draw
Most recent meetings appear first. These results come from the Squiggle API.

Further game details

All Round 12 tips Collingwood fixture Hawthorn fixture