afl-tips.com

Essendon vs Fremantle Tips

Round 7 2027, Sat 1 May, 4:15pm AEST at Marvel Stadium: we tip Fremantle by 26 with a 79% win chance.

Our tip
Fremantleby 26 points
Win chance
79%Essendon 21.4%, Fremantle 78.6%
Predicted score
73–99Essendon first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

ESSFRE

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Fremantle78.6%26.1 pts
Elo Predicts!Fremantle66.9%32.0 pts
s10Fremantle83.8%35.2 pts
SquiggleFremantle81.8%33.1 pts
StattractionFremantle87.8%43.2 pts
Wheelo RatingsFremantle79.8%27.3 pts
Squiggle aggregateFremantle79.1%33.9 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Fremantle

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Essendon rate −22.3 overall (18th) and Fremantle +12.8 (4th), which leaves Fremantle 26 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Essendon−10.7−11.7−22.3LLLLL
Fremantle+5.7+7.1+12.8LLWWL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
18no draws
Essendon wins
9
Fremantle wins
9
Average margin
27.9points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2017Round 23Marvel StadiumEssendon 107, Fremantle 92Essendon
2018Round 2Optus StadiumFremantle 106, Essendon 90Fremantle
2018Round 18Marvel StadiumEssendon 99, Fremantle 70Essendon
2019Round 9Marvel StadiumEssendon 60, Fremantle 53Essendon
2019Round 22Optus StadiumFremantle 55, Essendon 87Essendon
2020Round 1Marvel StadiumEssendon 63, Fremantle 57Essendon
2021Round 9Marvel StadiumEssendon 68, Fremantle 61Essendon
2022Round 5Marvel StadiumEssendon 59, Fremantle 107Fremantle
2023Round 15Optus StadiumFremantle 93, Essendon 61Fremantle
2024Round 21MCGEssendon 90, Fremantle 89Essendon
2025Round 15Optus StadiumFremantle 104, Essendon 63Fremantle
2026Round 10MCGEssendon 61, Fremantle 104Fremantle
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 7 tips Essendon fixture Fremantle fixture