afl-tips.com

Essendon vs St Kilda Tips

Round 12 2027, Sun 6 Jun, 3:15pm AEST at Marvel Stadium: we tip St Kilda by 22 with a 75% win chance.

Our tip
St Kildaby 22 points
Win chance
75%Essendon 25.0%, St Kilda 75.0%
Predicted score
76–99Essendon first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

ESSSTK

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)St Kilda75.0%22.2 pts
Elo Predicts!St Kilda65.4%20.0 pts
s10St Kilda75.3%23.6 pts
SquiggleSt Kilda79.1%29.4 pts
StattractionSt Kilda77.8%27.4 pts
Wheelo RatingsSt Kilda72.9%19.9 pts
Squiggle aggregateSt Kilda73.8%24.2 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip St Kilda

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Essendon rate −22.3 overall (18th) and St Kilda −2.1 (13th), which leaves St Kilda 22 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Essendon−10.7−11.7−22.3LLLLL
St Kilda−0.5−1.6−2.1WLLWL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
18no draws
Essendon wins
7
St Kilda wins
11
Average margin
38.7points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2016Round 16Marvel StadiumEssendon 98, St Kilda 109St Kilda
2017Round 17Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 57, Essendon 118Essendon
2018Round 21Marvel StadiumEssendon 122, St Kilda 79Essendon
2019Round 2Marvel StadiumEssendon 65, St Kilda 76St Kilda
2020Round 12GabbaSt Kilda 68, Essendon 33St Kilda
2021Round 3Marvel StadiumEssendon 143, St Kilda 68Essendon
2022Round 14Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 72, Essendon 107Essendon
2023Round 3MCGSt Kilda 92, Essendon 74St Kilda
2024Round 3Marvel StadiumEssendon 71, St Kilda 67Essendon
2024Round 20Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 108, Essendon 55St Kilda
2025Round 23Marvel StadiumEssendon 75, St Kilda 77St Kilda
2026Round 17Marvel StadiumEssendon 50, St Kilda 117St Kilda
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 12 tips Essendon fixture St Kilda fixture