afl-tips.com

Greater Western Sydney vs Geelong Tips

Round 7 2027, Sat 1 May, 4:35pm AEST at Sydney Showground: we tip Geelong by 5 with a 56% win chance.

Our tip
Geelongby 5 points
Win chance
56%GWS 44.0%, Geelong 56.0%
Predicted score
94–99GWS first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

GWSGEE

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Geelong56.0%5.0 pts
Elo Predicts!Geelong52.5%6.0 pts
s10Geelong61.2%9.9 pts
SquiggleGeelong63.2%12.7 pts
StattractionGeelong65.1%13.8 pts
Wheelo RatingsGeelong57.3%6.0 pts
Squiggle aggregateGeelong59.5%9.6 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Geelong

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

GWS rate −0.2 overall (11th) and Geelong +14.1 (3rd), which leaves Geelong 5 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
GWS+3.1−3.3−0.2LWLWL
Geelong+13.4+0.6+14.1WWWWL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
191 drawn
GWS wins
9
Geelong wins
9
Average margin
25.4points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2017Round 23GMHBA StadiumGeelong 103, GWS 59Geelong
2018Round 7GMHBA StadiumGeelong 93, GWS 32Geelong
2019Round 4GMHBA StadiumGeelong 75, GWS 79GWS
2020Round 1Sydney ShowgroundGWS 105, Geelong 73GWS
2021Round 21GMHBA StadiumGeelong 65, GWS 84GWS
2021Semi-FinalsOptus StadiumGeelong 103, GWS 68Geelong
2022Round 8Manuka OvalGWS 35, Geelong 88Geelong
2023Round 11GMHBA StadiumGeelong 74, GWS 81GWS
2024Round 11GMHBA StadiumGeelong 74, GWS 78GWS
2025Round 9GMHBA StadiumGeelong 101, GWS 105GWS
2025Round 18Sydney ShowgroundGWS 111, Geelong 85GWS
2026Round 18Sydney ShowgroundGWS 86, Geelong 73GWS
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 7 tips Greater Western Sydney fixture Geelong fixture