afl-tips.com

Greater Western Sydney vs Melbourne Tips

Round 19 2027, Mon 19 Jul, 12:00pm AEST at Sydney Showground: we tip Greater Western Sydney by 5 with a 56% win chance.

Our tip
GWSby 5 points
Win chance
56%GWS 55.5%, Melbourne 44.5%
Predicted score
97–92GWS first
Models with us
3 of 52 tip Melbourne

Every model on this game

GWSMEL

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)GWS55.5%4.6 pts
Elo Predicts!GWS83.3%29.0 pts
s10Melbourne52.5%2.4 pts
SquiggleGWS57.3%6.1 pts
StattractionMelbourne58.1%7.3 pts
Wheelo RatingsGWS53.0%2.5 pts
Squiggle aggregateGWS58.9%7.6 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip GWS

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

GWS rate −0.2 overall (11th) and Melbourne +5.0 (8th), which leaves GWS 5 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
GWS+3.1−3.3−0.2LWLWL
Melbourne+7.3−2.3+5.0WWWLL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
20no draws
GWS wins
11
Melbourne wins
9
Average margin
31.4points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2016Round 1MCGMelbourne 80, GWS 78Melbourne
2017Round 20UNSW Canberra OvalGWS 97, Melbourne 62GWS
2018Round 23MCGMelbourne 102, GWS 57Melbourne
2019Round 10MCGMelbourne 68, GWS 94GWS
2020Round 17GabbaGWS 74, Melbourne 79Melbourne
2021Round 3Manuka OvalGWS 68, Melbourne 102Melbourne
2021Round 16MCGMelbourne 55, GWS 64GWS
2022Round 5MCGMelbourne 120, GWS 53Melbourne
2023Round 16Traeger ParkMelbourne 45, GWS 47GWS
2024Round 20MCGMelbourne 83, GWS 85GWS
2025Round 1MCGMelbourne 74, GWS 77GWS
2026Round 12Traeger ParkMelbourne 70, GWS 119GWS
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 19 tips Greater Western Sydney fixture Melbourne fixture