afl-tips.com

Hawthorn vs Brisbane Lions Tips

Round 1 2027, Fri 19 Mar, 7:50pm AEDT at MCG: we tip Hawthorn by 5 with a 56% win chance.

Our tip
Hawthornby 5 points
Win chance
56%Hawthorn 56.0%, Brisbane 44.0%
Predicted score
100–95Hawthorn first
Models with us
4 of 51 tip Brisbane

Every model on this game

HAWBRI

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Hawthorn56.0%5.0 pts
Elo Predicts!Brisbane51.2%6.0 pts
s10Hawthorn55.1%4.3 pts
SquiggleHawthorn67.9%17.1 pts
StattractionHawthorn54.1%3.7 pts
Wheelo RatingsHawthorn56.0%5.0 pts
Squiggle aggregateHawthorn56.7%4.9 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Hawthorn

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Hawthorn rate +11.6 overall (5th) and Brisbane +14.8 (1st), which leaves Hawthorn 5 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Hawthorn+7.1+4.4+11.6LDWWL
Brisbane+17.4−2.6+14.8WLWWW
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
19no draws
Hawthorn wins
11
Brisbane wins
8
Average margin
35.7points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2018Round 17University of Tasmania StadiumHawthorn 65, Brisbane 98Brisbane
2019Round 11GabbaBrisbane 85, Hawthorn 66Brisbane
2019Round 19York ParkHawthorn 60, Brisbane 87Brisbane
2020Round 1MCGHawthorn 90, Brisbane 62Hawthorn
2021Round 20York ParkHawthorn 92, Brisbane 80Hawthorn
2022Round 10York ParkHawthorn 117, Brisbane 112Hawthorn
2023Round 13MCGHawthorn 98, Brisbane 73Hawthorn
2024Round 11Marvel StadiumHawthorn 100, Brisbane 75Hawthorn
2025Round 11MCGHawthorn 60, Brisbane 93Brisbane
2025Round 24GabbaBrisbane 89, Hawthorn 79Brisbane
2026Round 22GabbaBrisbane 125, Hawthorn 58Brisbane
2026Preliminary FinalsMCGHawthorn 122, Brisbane 131Brisbane
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 1 tips Hawthorn fixture Brisbane Lions fixture