afl-tips.com

Hawthorn vs Carlton Tips

Round 7 2027, Fri 30 Apr, 7:40pm AEST at MCG: we tip Hawthorn by 6 with a 57% win chance.

Our tip
Hawthornby 6 points
Win chance
57%Hawthorn 57.4%, Carlton 42.6%
Predicted score
90–84Hawthorn first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

HAWCAR

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Hawthorn57.4%6.2 pts
Elo Predicts!Hawthorn74.5%21.0 pts
s10Hawthorn61.5%9.9 pts
SquiggleHawthorn69.5%18.6 pts
StattractionHawthorn59.6%8.5 pts
Wheelo RatingsHawthorn63.4%11.2 pts
Squiggle aggregateHawthorn66.8%14.8 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Hawthorn

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Hawthorn rate +11.6 overall (5th) and Carlton +5.4 (7th), which leaves Hawthorn 6 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Hawthorn+7.1+4.4+11.6LDWWL
Carlton+2.2+3.1+5.4WDWWL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
17no draws
Hawthorn wins
13
Carlton wins
4
Average margin
40.5points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2016Round 19York ParkHawthorn 74, Carlton 55Hawthorn
2017Round 22Marvel StadiumCarlton 77, Hawthorn 70Carlton
2018Round 18Marvel StadiumCarlton 52, Hawthorn 124Hawthorn
2019Round 6York ParkHawthorn 93, Carlton 88Hawthorn
2020Round 9Optus StadiumCarlton 58, Hawthorn 89Hawthorn
2021Round 10MCGCarlton 86, Hawthorn 63Carlton
2022Round 3MCGCarlton 74, Hawthorn 73Carlton
2023Round 16MCGHawthorn 52, Carlton 112Carlton
2024Round 22MCGCarlton 38, Hawthorn 112Hawthorn
2025Round 2MCGCarlton 60, Hawthorn 80Hawthorn
2025Round 20MCGHawthorn 85, Carlton 61Hawthorn
2026Round 18MCGCarlton 39, Hawthorn 103Hawthorn
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 7 tips Hawthorn fixture Carlton fixture