afl-tips.com

Melbourne vs Brisbane Lions Tips

Round 24 2027, Mon 23 Aug, 12:00pm AEST at MCG: we tip Brisbane Lions by 1 with a 51% win chance.

Our tip
Brisbaneby 1 points
Win chance
51%Melbourne 49.3%, Brisbane 50.7%
Predicted score
101–102Melbourne first
Models with us
4 of 51 tip Melbourne

Every model on this game

MELBRI

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Brisbane50.7%0.6 pts
Elo Predicts!Brisbane86.2%38.0 pts
s10Brisbane51.1%1.0 pts
SquiggleBrisbane58.0%6.5 pts
StattractionBrisbane53.4%2.8 pts
Wheelo RatingsMelbourne51.1%0.9 pts
Squiggle aggregateBrisbane61.6%11.6 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Brisbane

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Melbourne rate +5.0 overall (8th) and Brisbane +14.8 (1st), which leaves Brisbane 1 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Melbourne+7.3−2.3+5.0WWWLL
Brisbane+17.4−2.6+14.8WLWWW
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
22no draws
Melbourne wins
11
Brisbane wins
11
Average margin
26.2points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2020Round 8People First StadiumMelbourne 49, Brisbane 53Brisbane
2021Round 12Sydney ShowgroundMelbourne 97, Brisbane 75Melbourne
2021Finals Week 1Adelaide OvalMelbourne 93, Brisbane 60Melbourne
2022Round 15MCGMelbourne 117, Brisbane 53Melbourne
2022Round 23GabbaBrisbane 57, Melbourne 115Melbourne
2022Semi-FinalsMCGMelbourne 79, Brisbane 92Brisbane
2023Round 2GabbaBrisbane 93, Melbourne 82Brisbane
2023Round 18MCGMelbourne 105, Brisbane 104Melbourne
2024Round 5MCGMelbourne 60, Brisbane 82Brisbane
2024Round 16GabbaBrisbane 86, Melbourne 81Brisbane
2025Round 10GabbaBrisbane 88, Melbourne 99Melbourne
2026Round 6MCGMelbourne 104, Brisbane 102Melbourne
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 24 tips Melbourne fixture Brisbane Lions fixture