afl-tips.com

Melbourne vs Collingwood Tips

Melbourne is our pick by 3, with a 54% chance of winning Round 13 2027 at MCG, Mon 14 Jun, 3: 15pm AEST.

What we predict
Melbourneby 3 points
Win chance
54%; Collingwood 46.3%; Melbourne 53.7%
Score forecast
95–92Melbourne first
Supporting models
3 of 52 tip Collingwood

Every model for this match

MELCOL

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Melbourne53.7%3.1 pts
Elo Predicts!Collingwood77.7%30.0 pts
s10Melbourne59.4%8.1 pts
SquiggleCollingwood54.6%4.0 pts
StattractionMelbourne59.1%8.3 pts
Wheelo RatingsMelbourne59.6%8.0 pts
Squiggle aggregateCollingwood53.4%4.4 pts
Win chance applies to the club each source selects. Public model tips come from the Squiggle API; Squiggle's aggregate averages all models. Results are graded after the siren.

Our reason for picking Melbourne

Against an average side, each club is rated for its attack and defence in points. Our ratings also account for home ground and travel in this game.

Overall, Melbourne are rated +5.0 (8th), while Collingwood are +0.9 (10th). That leaves Melbourne 3 points better for the day.

During 2015 through 2026, the model made correct tips in 68.3% of 2,476 games, while its average margin error was 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Melbourne+7.3−2.3+5.0WWWLL
Collingwood+3.0−2.1+0.9LWDLL
Points per game against an average side at the start of 2027. Form covers the last five games of 2026, with the latest on the right.

Head-to-head record since 2012

Meetings
23no draws
Wins for Melbourne
7
Wins for Collingwood
16
Margin on average
27.7points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2019Round 21MCGMelbourne 53, Collingwood 70Collingwood
2020Round 12GabbaMelbourne 100, Collingwood 44Melbourne
2021Round 13SCGMelbourne 63, Collingwood 80Collingwood
2022Round 13MCGCollingwood 82, Melbourne 56Collingwood
2022Round 21MCGMelbourne 89, Collingwood 96Collingwood
2023Round 13MCGMelbourne 66, Collingwood 62Melbourne
2023Finals Week 1MCGCollingwood 60, Melbourne 53Collingwood
2024Round 13MCGCollingwood 89, Melbourne 51Collingwood
2024Round 24MCGMelbourne 57, Collingwood 103Collingwood
2025Round 13MCGMelbourne 71, Collingwood 72Collingwood
2025Round 24MCGCollingwood 82, Melbourne 76Collingwood
2026Round 13MCGCollingwood 75, Melbourne 83Melbourne
The most recent meetings appear first. These results come from the Squiggle API.

More about this game

All Round 13 tips Melbourne fixture Collingwood fixture