afl-tips.com

Melbourne vs Essendon Tips

At MCG on Sun 21 Mar, 3: 15pm AEDT, our Round 1 2027 selection is Melbourne by 29, with an 81% win chance.

Our selection
Melbourneby 29 points
Win chance
Melbourne 81.3%; Essendon 18.7%; 81%
Score we predict
106–77Melbourne first
Models on our side
5 of 5every public model agrees

All models for this match

MELESS

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Melbourne81.3%29.3 pts
Elo Predicts!Melbourne63.3%10.0 pts
s10Melbourne84.5%35.0 pts
SquiggleMelbourne77.5%27.4 pts
StattractionMelbourne83.3%35.2 pts
Wheelo RatingsMelbourne85.6%34.7 pts
Squiggle aggregateMelbourne77.4%26.8 pts
Win chance applies to the club each source selects. Public model tips come from the Squiggle API; Squiggle's aggregate is its average across all models. Results are graded after the siren.

Why our tip is Melbourne

Our ratings assess each club's attack and defence using points against an average side. For this game, they also include the home ground and travel.

Melbourne rate +5.0 overall (8th), while Essendon rate −22.3 (18th). For this match, that leaves Melbourne 29 points better.

From 2015 through 2026, the model selected the correct winner in 68.3% of 2,476 games. Its average margin error was 27.0 points. Model details

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Melbourne+7.3−2.3+5.0WWWLL
Essendon−10.7−11.7−22.3LLLLL
Points per game against an average side at the start of 2027. Form covers the last five games of 2026, with the most recent on the right.

Head-to-head results since 2012

Meetings
16no draws
Melbourne win
9
Essendon win
7
Mean margin
31.3points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2016Round 2MCGEssendon 80, Melbourne 67Essendon
2017Round 6Marvel StadiumEssendon 74, Melbourne 112Melbourne
2018Round 6Marvel StadiumEssendon 72, Melbourne 108Melbourne
2019Round 3MCGMelbourne 112, Essendon 130Essendon
2020Round 18People First StadiumEssendon 49, Melbourne 68Melbourne
2021Round 15MCGEssendon 57, Melbourne 68Melbourne
2022Round 3MCGMelbourne 99, Essendon 70Melbourne
2023Round 5Adelaide OvalEssendon 104, Melbourne 77Essendon
2024Round 18MCGMelbourne 84, Essendon 67Melbourne
2025Round 5Adelaide OvalMelbourne 57, Essendon 96Essendon
2026Round 5Adelaide OvalEssendon 113, Melbourne 68Essendon
2026Round 14MCGMelbourne 95, Essendon 50Melbourne
Most recent meetings are listed first. The results come from the Squiggle API.

More game details

All Round 1 tips Melbourne fixture Essendon fixture