afl-tips.com

Melbourne vs Gold Coast Tips

Our Round 9 2027 tip is Melbourne by 18 for the game at MCG on Sat 15 May, 1: 45pm AEST, giving them a 70% win chance.

What we tip
Melbourneby 18 points
Win chance
Melbourne 70.3%, Gold Coast 29.7%, 70%
Score forecast
102–84Melbourne first
Models backing our tip
4 of 51 tip Gold Coast

All models for this game

MELGCS

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Melbourne70.3%17.6 pts
Elo Predicts!Gold Coast54.6%7.0 pts
s10Melbourne67.8%15.7 pts
SquiggleMelbourne58.9%8.7 pts
StattractionMelbourne66.9%15.4 pts
Wheelo RatingsMelbourne68.7%15.9 pts
Squiggle aggregateMelbourne60.0%8.2 pts
Each source's win chance applies to the club it tips. Public model tips come from the Squiggle API, while the aggregate is Squiggle's average across all models. Results are graded after the siren.

Why our tip is Melbourne

We rate each club's attack and defence against an average side, using points against that side. For this game, our ratings also include home ground and travel.

Melbourne has an overall rating of +5.0 (8th), while Gold Coast rates −1.8 (12th). This puts Melbourne 18 points ahead on the day.

Across games from 2015 to 2026, this model correctly tipped 68.3% over 2,476 games. Its average margin error was 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Melbourne+7.3−2.3+5.0WWWLL
Gold Coast+0.5−2.4−1.8LLWLW
Points per game against an average side at the start of 2027. Form covers the last five games of 2026, with the latest on the right.

Meetings since 2012

Meetings
20no draws
Melbourne victory count
15
Gold Coast victory count
5
Margin on average
35.9points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2018Round 8GabbaGold Coast 77, Melbourne 146Melbourne
2018Round 20MCGMelbourne 143, Gold Coast 47Melbourne
2019Round 8People First StadiumGold Coast 60, Melbourne 61Melbourne
2020Round 6Sydney ShowgroundMelbourne 80, Gold Coast 63Melbourne
2021Round 20Marvel StadiumGold Coast 30, Melbourne 128Melbourne
2022Round 2People First StadiumGold Coast 69, Melbourne 82Melbourne
2023Round 8People First StadiumGold Coast 85, Melbourne 90Melbourne
2024Round 23People First StadiumGold Coast 63, Melbourne 117Melbourne
2025Round 3MCGMelbourne 62, Gold Coast 120Gold Coast
2025Round 16People First StadiumGold Coast 104, Melbourne 85Gold Coast
2026Round 4MCGMelbourne 109, Gold Coast 89Melbourne
2026Round 21People First StadiumGold Coast 105, Melbourne 114Melbourne
Most recent meetings appear first. Results come from the Squiggle API.

More game information

All Round 9 tips Melbourne fixture Gold Coast fixture