afl-tips.com

Melbourne vs Hawthorn Tips

Round 20 2027, Mon 26 Jul, 12:00pm AEST at MCG: we tip Hawthorn by 6 with a 57% win chance.

Our tip
Hawthornby 6 points
Win chance
57%Melbourne 43.3%, Hawthorn 56.7%
Predicted score
90–95Melbourne first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

MELHAW

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Hawthorn56.7%5.6 pts
Elo Predicts!Hawthorn85.3%32.0 pts
s10Hawthorn54.6%3.9 pts
SquiggleHawthorn74.8%24.3 pts
StattractionHawthorn57.5%6.5 pts
Wheelo RatingsHawthorn51.6%1.3 pts
Squiggle aggregateHawthorn67.3%16.0 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Hawthorn

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Melbourne rate +5.0 overall (8th) and Hawthorn +11.6 (5th), which leaves Hawthorn 6 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Melbourne+7.3−2.3+5.0WWWLL
Hawthorn+7.1+4.4+11.6LDWWL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
211 drawn
Melbourne wins
11
Hawthorn wins
9
Average margin
40.7points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2019Round 7MCGMelbourne 79, Hawthorn 74Melbourne
2020Round 7Sydney ShowgroundHawthorn 48, Melbourne 91Melbourne
2021Round 5MCGHawthorn 54, Melbourne 104Melbourne
2021Round 18MCGMelbourne 79, Hawthorn 79Draw
2022Round 7MCGMelbourne 91, Hawthorn 81Melbourne
2023Round 9MCGHawthorn 49, Melbourne 103Melbourne
2023Round 23MCGMelbourne 87, Hawthorn 60Melbourne
2024Round 2MCGHawthorn 38, Melbourne 93Melbourne
2025Round 9MCGMelbourne 56, Hawthorn 91Hawthorn
2025Round 23MCGHawthorn 92, Melbourne 56Hawthorn
2026Round 10MCGMelbourne 120, Hawthorn 81Melbourne
2026Round 17York ParkHawthorn 90, Melbourne 125Melbourne
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 20 tips Melbourne fixture Hawthorn fixture