afl-tips.com

North Melbourne vs Hawthorn Tips

Round 19 2027, Mon 19 Jul, 12:00pm AEST at Marvel Stadium: we tip Hawthorn by 15 with a 68% win chance.

Our tip
Hawthornby 15 points
Win chance
68%North Melbourne 32.1%, Hawthorn 67.9%
Predicted score
83–98North Melbourne first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

NTHHAW

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Hawthorn67.9%15.3 pts
Elo Predicts!Hawthorn93.3%52.0 pts
s10Hawthorn73.3%21.8 pts
SquiggleHawthorn81.1%32.1 pts
StattractionHawthorn77.6%27.3 pts
Wheelo RatingsHawthorn69.1%16.3 pts
Squiggle aggregateHawthorn80.3%31.9 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Hawthorn

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

North Melbourne rate −7.3 overall (14th) and Hawthorn +11.6 (5th), which leaves Hawthorn 15 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
North Melbourne−1.1−6.2−7.3LLWLL
Hawthorn+7.1+4.4+11.6LDWWL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
21no draws
North Melbourne wins
4
Hawthorn wins
17
Average margin
36.5points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2019Round 3MCGHawthorn 87, North Melbourne 71Hawthorn
2019Round 20Marvel StadiumNorth Melbourne 86, Hawthorn 64North Melbourne
2020Round 4Marvel StadiumHawthorn 58, North Melbourne 54Hawthorn
2021Round 9York ParkHawthorn 80, North Melbourne 87North Melbourne
2022Round 1MCGHawthorn 78, North Melbourne 58Hawthorn
2022Round 19Bellerive OvalNorth Melbourne 75, Hawthorn 121Hawthorn
2023Round 3York ParkHawthorn 80, North Melbourne 61Hawthorn
2023Round 18Marvel StadiumNorth Melbourne 40, Hawthorn 88Hawthorn
2024Round 6Marvel StadiumNorth Melbourne 68, Hawthorn 113Hawthorn
2024Round 24York ParkHawthorn 170, North Melbourne 46Hawthorn
2025Round 16York ParkHawthorn 150, North Melbourne 65Hawthorn
2026Round 21York ParkHawthorn 99, North Melbourne 83Hawthorn
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 19 tips North Melbourne fixture Hawthorn fixture