afl-tips.com

Richmond vs Carlton Tips

Round 1 2027, Sat 20 Mar, 12:35pm AEDT at MCG: we tip Carlton by 25 with a 78% win chance.

Our tip
Carltonby 25 points
Win chance
78%Richmond 22.0%, Carlton 78.0%
Predicted score
71–97Richmond first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

RICCAR

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Carlton78.0%25.4 pts
Elo Predicts!Carlton74.3%21.0 pts
s10Carlton78.4%27.5 pts
SquiggleCarlton75.2%24.8 pts
StattractionCarlton81.7%32.7 pts
Wheelo RatingsCarlton75.2%22.2 pts
Squiggle aggregateCarlton76.6%25.2 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Carlton

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Richmond rate −21.8 overall (17th) and Carlton +5.4 (7th), which leaves Carlton 25 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Richmond−13.1−8.7−21.8LWLLL
Carlton+2.2+3.1+5.4WDWWL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
241 drawn
Richmond wins
14
Carlton wins
9
Average margin
20.5points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2019Round 1MCGCarlton 64, Richmond 97Richmond
2019Round 21MCGRichmond 73, Carlton 45Richmond
2020Round 1MCGRichmond 105, Carlton 81Richmond
2021Round 1MCGRichmond 105, Carlton 80Richmond
2022Round 1MCGCarlton 101, Richmond 76Carlton
2022Round 14MCGRichmond 81, Carlton 66Richmond
2023Round 1MCGRichmond 58, Carlton 58Draw
2024Round 1MCGCarlton 86, Richmond 81Carlton
2024Round 16MCGRichmond 70, Carlton 131Carlton
2025Round 1MCGRichmond 82, Carlton 69Richmond
2026Round 1MCGCarlton 75, Richmond 71Carlton
2026Round 17MCGRichmond 72, Carlton 74Carlton
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 1 tips Richmond fixture Carlton fixture