afl-tips.com

St Kilda vs Carlton Tips

For Round 15 2027 at Marvel Stadium on Sun 27 Jun, 3: 15pm AEST, our tip is Carlton by 5. Their win chance is 56%.

The tip we give
Carltonby 5 points
Win chance
St Kilda 44.0%, Carlton 56.0%, 56%
The score we expect
84–89St Kilda first
Models backing us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model used for this match

STKCAR

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Carlton56.0%5.0 pts
Elo Predicts!Carlton54.6%1.0 pts
s10Carlton55.6%4.8 pts
SquiggleCarlton55.1%4.3 pts
StattractionCarlton56.6%5.8 pts
Wheelo RatingsCarlton54.6%3.7 pts
Squiggle aggregateCarlton55.2%3.7 pts
Each source's win chance applies to the club that source tips. Public model tips come from the Squiggle API, and the aggregate is Squiggle's average of every model. We grade these after the siren.

Why Carlton is our pick

Our ratings assess each club's attack and defence by points against an average side. We then add home ground and travel for this game.

Overall ratings place St Kilda at −2.1 (13th) and Carlton at +5.4 (7th). That puts Carlton 5 points better on the day.

Across 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, the model got 68.3% of tips right. Its average margin error was 27.0 points. How it works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
St Kilda−0.5−1.6−2.1WLLWL
Carlton+2.2+3.1+5.4WDWWL
Points per game versus an average side, as of the start of 2027. Form covers the last five games of 2026, with the most recent on the right.

Meetings since 2012

Meetings
22no draws
Wins by St Kilda
13
Wins by Carlton
9
Margin on average
29.8points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2018Round 17Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 116, Carlton 52St Kilda
2019Round 10Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 68, Carlton 55St Kilda
2019Round 22MCGCarlton 78, St Kilda 68Carlton
2020Round 5Marvel StadiumCarlton 55, St Kilda 73St Kilda
2021Round 20Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 81, Carlton 112Carlton
2022Round 16Marvel StadiumCarlton 78, St Kilda 93St Kilda
2023Round 6Marvel StadiumCarlton 60, St Kilda 82St Kilda
2023Round 21Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 54, Carlton 73Carlton
2024Round 24Marvel StadiumCarlton 74, St Kilda 76St Kilda
2025Round 9MCGSt Kilda 62, Carlton 77Carlton
2026Round 8Marvel StadiumCarlton 69, St Kilda 108St Kilda
2026Round 22Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 62, Carlton 106Carlton
The most recent meetings come first. These results come from the Squiggle API.

More about this game

All Round 15 tips St Kilda fixture Carlton fixture