afl-tips.com

Sydney vs Geelong Tips

Round 1 2027, Wed 17 Mar, 7:30pm AEDT at SCG: we tip Sydney by 11 with a 63% win chance.

Our tip
Sydneyby 11 points
Win chance
63%Sydney 63.3%, Geelong 36.7%
Predicted score
104–93Sydney first
Models with us
4 of 51 tip Geelong

Every model on this game

SYDGEE

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Sydney63.3%11.2 pts
Elo Predicts!Geelong61.1%13.0 pts
s10Sydney59.4%7.9 pts
SquiggleSydney53.1%3.2 pts
StattractionSydney57.2%6.2 pts
Wheelo RatingsSydney61.7%9.7 pts
Squiggle aggregateSydney52.7%1.5 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Sydney

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Sydney rate +14.5 overall (2nd) and Geelong +14.1 (3rd), which leaves Sydney 11 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Sydney+13.0+1.5+14.5WWWWL
Geelong+13.4+0.6+14.1WWWWL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
241 drawn
Sydney wins
10
Geelong wins
13
Average margin
35.8points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2018Round 16SCGSydney 59, Geelong 71Geelong
2019Round 11GMHBA StadiumGeelong 85, Sydney 63Geelong
2019Round 19SCGSydney 80, Geelong 107Geelong
2020Round 18People First StadiumSydney 63, Geelong 69Geelong
2021Round 7SCGSydney 90, Geelong 88Sydney
2022Round 2SCGSydney 107, Geelong 77Sydney
2022Grand FinalMCGGeelong 133, Sydney 52Geelong
2023Round 6GMHBA StadiumGeelong 130, Sydney 37Geelong
2023Round 16SCGSydney 54, Geelong 54Draw
2024Round 13SCGSydney 112, Geelong 82Sydney
2025Round 23SCGSydney 68, Geelong 111Geelong
2026Round 11GMHBA StadiumGeelong 107, Sydney 80Geelong
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 1 tips Sydney fixture Geelong fixture