afl-tips.com

Sydney vs Gold Coast Tips

For Round 20 2027, we pick Sydney by 27 with an 80% win chance. The game is at SCG on Mon 26 Jul, 12 : 00pm AEST.

Tip from us
Sydneyby 27 points
Win chance
80%, with Sydney 79.7% and Gold Coast 20.3%
Score we expect
107–80Sydney first
Models backing us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Each model for this match

SYDGCS

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Sydney79.7%27.4 pts
Elo Predicts!Sydney55.6%1.0 pts
s10Sydney75.6%23.8 pts
SquiggleSydney74.3%23.8 pts
StattractionSydney76.8%26.1 pts
Wheelo RatingsSydney74.5%21.5 pts
Squiggle aggregateSydney70.3%18.1 pts
Each source's win chance applies to the club that source tips. The Squiggle API provides public model tips; Squiggle's aggregate averages every model. The grading happens once the siren has sounded.

Reasoning behind our Sydney tip

We score every club by attack and defence, measured in points against an average side, then add the home ground and travel for this game.

Gold Coast rate −1.8 (12th) overall, while Sydney are +14.5 (2nd). On the day, that leaves Sydney 27 points better.

From 2015 to 2026, the model made 68.3% correct tips over 2,476 games. The average margin error came to 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Sydney+13.0+1.5+14.5WWWWL
Gold Coast+0.5−2.4−1.8LLWLW
At the start of 2027, points per game against an average side. The form covers the last five games of 2026, with the most recent on the right.

Head-to-head results since 2012

Meetings
18no draws
Wins for Sydney
13
Wins for Gold Coast
5
Margin on average
44.6points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2017Round 16SCGSydney 118, Gold Coast 51Sydney
2018Round 18SCGSydney 64, Gold Coast 88Gold Coast
2019Round 15SCGSydney 93, Gold Coast 51Sydney
2020Round 7SCGSydney 60, Gold Coast 92Gold Coast
2021Round 6People First StadiumGold Coast 100, Sydney 60Gold Coast
2021Round 23Marvel StadiumSydney 136, Gold Coast 49Sydney
2022Round 8SCGSydney 61, Gold Coast 75Gold Coast
2023Round 1People First StadiumGold Coast 61, Sydney 110Sydney
2023Round 22SCGSydney 114, Gold Coast 90Sydney
2024Round 6SCGSydney 110, Gold Coast 57Sydney
2025Round 7People First StadiumGold Coast 117, Sydney 79Gold Coast
2026Round 5Norwood OvalSydney 100, Gold Coast 68Sydney
Listed from newest to oldest. The Squiggle API provides these results.

Further game details

All Round 20 tips Sydney fixture Gold Coast fixture