afl-tips.com

Adelaide vs Brisbane Lions Tips

At Adelaide Oval, our Round 4 2027 pick is Adelaide on Thu 8 Apr, 7: 40pm AEST. We give Adelaide a 55% win chance and predict a 4-point win.

The tip we give
Adelaideby 4 points
Win chance
Brisbane 45.5%, with Adelaide 54.5%; 55% is listed separately.
Score prediction
101–98Adelaide first
Models backing us
1 of 54 tip Brisbane

Every model for this game

ADEBRI

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Adelaide54.5%3.7 pts
Elo Predicts!Brisbane52.1%5.0 pts
s10Brisbane52.1%1.9 pts
SquiggleBrisbane50.0%0.0 pts
StattractionBrisbane54.3%3.9 pts
Wheelo RatingsAdelaide50.2%0.1 pts
Squiggle aggregateBrisbane51.5%2.2 pts
Each win chance applies to the club that its source favors. Public model tips come from the Squiggle API, while the aggregate is Squiggle's average across all models. Results are graded after the siren.

Why we favor Adelaide

Our ratings assess each club's attack and defence by its points against an average side. We also include the home ground and travel for this game.

Adelaide's overall rating is +6.8 (6th), compared with Brisbane at +14.8 (1st). That makes Adelaide 4 points better for the day.

This model's tip was correct in 68.3% of predictions across 2,476 games played between 2015 and 2026, and its average margin error was 27.0 points. See how it works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Adelaide+6.2+0.5+6.8WLWWL
Brisbane+17.4−2.6+14.8WLWWW
Points per game against an average side at the start of 2027. Form shows the five most recent games from 2026. The rightmost result is the latest.

Head-to-head record from 2012

Meetings
191 drawn
Adelaide win count
9
Brisbane win count
9
Margin on average
38.3points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2018Round 18GabbaBrisbane 88, Adelaide 93Adelaide
2019Round 9GabbaBrisbane 93, Adelaide 92Brisbane
2020Round 4GabbaBrisbane 83, Adelaide 46Brisbane
2021Round 16Adelaide OvalAdelaide 59, Brisbane 111Brisbane
2022Round 9Adelaide OvalAdelaide 66, Brisbane 102Brisbane
2023Round 11Adelaide OvalAdelaide 95, Brisbane 78Adelaide
2023Round 22GabbaBrisbane 99, Adelaide 93Brisbane
2024Round 9Adelaide OvalAdelaide 90, Brisbane 90Draw
2024Round 17GabbaBrisbane 97, Adelaide 86Brisbane
2025Round 13Adelaide OvalAdelaide 68, Brisbane 63Adelaide
2026Round 7GabbaBrisbane 127, Adelaide 75Brisbane
2026Semi-FinalsGabbaBrisbane 144, Adelaide 91Brisbane
The most recent meetings appear first. Results come from the Squiggle API.

More about this match

All Round 4 tips Adelaide fixture Brisbane Lions fixture