AFL Round 4 Tips 2027
our selection, win chance and margin cover 9 games from Thu 8 Apr, shown alongside the 5 public models already included.
- Start of play
- Thu 8 Apr7:40pm AEST, Adelaide Oval
- Games
- 9No byes this round
- Pick for a streak
- Geelong69% to win, our safest tip
- Games with split predictions
- 7where the models do not agree
Tips for Round 4
our win chanceeach public modelThe Squiggle aggregate.
Games that decide the round
In these 3 games, our win chance is closest to a coin toss. A round is won or lost in these games, so tip them with care.
- Carlton v MelbourneMelbourne 50%, by 1
- Richmond v West CoastWest Coast 52%, by 1
- Fremantle v HawthornFremantle has 52%, with a predicted margin of 2.
Pick for a streak
Geelong
Against St Kilda, our most likely round winner has a 69% chance. Pick this for a streak game, where a miss sends the count back to zero.
Pick for the gauntlet
North Melbourne
Our season plan selects North Melbourne at 68% for this round, with one club each round and never the same club twice. See all 24 rounds
All games and models
| Game | Kick-off | Our tip | Win chance | Elo Predicts! | s10 | Squiggle | Stattraction | Wheelo Ratings | Aggregate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide v Brisbane | Thu 8 Apr, 7:40pm AEST | Adelaide | 54.5% | BRI 52% | BRI 52% | BRI 50% | BRI 54% | ADE 50% | BRI 52% |
| Sydney v Collingwood | Fri 9 Apr, 7:40pm AEST | Sydney | 65.5% | COL 65% | SYD 66% | SYD 62% | SYD 70% | SYD 61% | SYD 57% |
| Gold Coast v GWS | Sat 10 Apr, 12:35pm AEST | GWS | 52.3% | GWS 53% | GCS 50% | GCS 51% | GWS 51% | GCS 51% | GWS 51% |
| Carlton v Melbourne | Sat 10 Apr, 1:35pm AEST | Melbourne | 50.1% | CAR 58% | MEL 55% | CAR 54% | MEL 52% | MEL 57% | CAR 50% |
| Richmond v West Coast | Sat 10 Apr, 4:35pm AEST | West Coast | 51.5% | RIC 63% | WCE 55% | WCE 53% | WCE 56% | WCE 53% | RIC 50% |
| Fremantle v Hawthorn | Sat 10 Apr, 7:45pm AEST | Fremantle | 51.8% | HAW 65% | FRE 55% | HAW 59% | FRE 61% | HAW 51% | HAW 53% |
| Essendon v North Melbourne | Sun 11 Apr, 12:30pm AEST | North Melbourne | 67.6% | ESS 59% | NTH 68% | NTH 71% | NTH 66% | NTH 70% | NTH 62% |
| St Kilda v Geelong | Sun 11 Apr, 3:15pm AEST | Geelong | 68.8% | GEE 77% | GEE 73% | GEE 66% | GEE 71% | GEE 74% | GEE 72% |
| Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs | Sun 11 Apr, 7:15pm AEST | Western Bulldogs | 52.7% | WBD 67% | WBD 57% | WBD 59% | WBD 57% | WBD 56% | WBD 60% |