afl-tips.com

Adelaide vs Gold Coast Tips

Round 5 2027, Sat 17 Apr, 1:15pm AEST at Adelaide Oval: we tip Adelaide by 20 with a 72% win chance.

Our tip
Adelaideby 20 points
Win chance
72%Adelaide 72.4%, Gold Coast 27.6%
Predicted score
101–81Adelaide first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

ADEGCS

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Adelaide72.4%19.6 pts
Elo Predicts!Adelaide67.8%9.0 pts
s10Adelaide66.2%14.1 pts
SquiggleAdelaide59.5%9.3 pts
StattractionAdelaide66.1%14.3 pts
Wheelo RatingsAdelaide66.4%13.8 pts
Squiggle aggregateAdelaide64.9%11.6 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Adelaide

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Adelaide rate +6.8 overall (6th) and Gold Coast −1.8 (12th), which leaves Adelaide 20 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Adelaide+6.2+0.5+6.8WLWWL
Gold Coast+0.5−2.4−1.8LLWLW
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
20no draws
Adelaide wins
15
Gold Coast wins
5
Average margin
48.5points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2018Round 6Adelaide OvalAdelaide 110, Gold Coast 62Adelaide
2019Round 5Adelaide OvalAdelaide 119, Gold Coast 46Adelaide
2019Round 17People First StadiumGold Coast 56, Adelaide 151Adelaide
2020Round 3People First StadiumGold Coast 82, Adelaide 29Gold Coast
2021Round 3Adelaide OvalAdelaide 95, Gold Coast 85Adelaide
2022Round 14People First StadiumGold Coast 116, Adelaide 73Gold Coast
2023Round 12Marrara OvalGold Coast 112, Adelaide 87Gold Coast
2023Round 21Adelaide OvalAdelaide 89, Gold Coast 61Adelaide
2024Round 1People First StadiumGold Coast 60, Adelaide 54Gold Coast
2025Round 4People First StadiumGold Coast 91, Adelaide 90Gold Coast
2025Round 19Adelaide OvalAdelaide 107, Gold Coast 46Adelaide
2026Round 18Adelaide OvalAdelaide 128, Gold Coast 49Adelaide
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 5 tips Adelaide fixture Gold Coast fixture