AFL Round 5 Tips 2027
we cover 9 games from Thu 15 Apr. For each game, we provide our tip, win chance and margin alongside 5 public models already included.
- Start of play
- Thu 15 Apr7:30pm AEST, MCG
- Games
- 9No byes this round
- Streak tip
- Geelong86% to win, our safest tip
- Games with split opinions
- 3where the models do not agree
Round 5 selections
our win chanceeach public modelCombined Squiggle figure.
Games that decide the round
Our win chance is closest to a coin toss in these 3 games. These are the games where a round is won or lost, so tip them with care.
- Melbourne v SydneyMelbourne 51% with a predicted margin of 1.
- Carlton v CollingwoodCarlton 53% with a predicted margin of 3.
- Western Bulldogs v HawthornHawthorn 56% with a predicted margin of 5.
Streak selection
Geelong
Our most likely round winner: 86% against Essendon. Choose this for a streak game, where one missed tip resets the count.
Gauntlet selection
Fremantle
Pick one club each round without choosing the same club twice. Our season plan chooses Fremantle here at 85%. View all 24 rounds
All games and models
| Game | Kick-off | Our tip | Win chance | Elo Predicts! | s10 | Squiggle | Stattraction | Wheelo Ratings | Aggregate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton v Collingwood | Thu 15 Apr, 7:30pm AEST | Carlton | 53.0% | COL 70% | CAR 54% | CAR 50% | CAR 57% | CAR 51% | COL 53% |
| Melbourne v Sydney | Fri 16 Apr, 7:40pm AEST | Melbourne | 50.8% | SYD 52% | SYD 51% | SYD 60% | SYD 53% | MEL 51% | SYD 53% |
| Fremantle v West Coast | Fri 16 Apr, 8:10pm AEST | Fremantle | 84.5% | FRE 86% | FRE 87% | FRE 82% | FRE 89% | FRE 85% | FRE 86% |
| Adelaide v Gold Coast | Sat 17 Apr, 1:15pm AEST | Adelaide | 72.4% | ADE 68% | ADE 66% | ADE 60% | ADE 66% | ADE 66% | ADE 65% |
| Richmond v North Melbourne | Sat 17 Apr, 4:15pm AEST | North Melbourne | 61.4% | NTH 54% | NTH 64% | NTH 67% | NTH 66% | NTH 62% | NTH 62% |
| Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn | Sat 17 Apr, 7:35pm AEST | Hawthorn | 56.1% | WBD 52% | HAW 62% | HAW 65% | HAW 66% | HAW 58% | HAW 59% |
| Essendon v Geelong | Sun 18 Apr, 12:30pm AEST | Geelong | 86.2% | GEE 86% | GEE 88% | GEE 89% | GEE 90% | GEE 87% | GEE 88% |
| St Kilda v Port Adelaide | Sun 18 Apr, 3:15pm AEST | St Kilda | 72.4% | STK 55% | STK 68% | STK 69% | STK 68% | STK 67% | STK 65% |
| Brisbane v GWS | Sun 18 Apr, 6:10pm AEST | Brisbane | 77.6% | BRI 73% | BRI 77% | BRI 70% | BRI 77% | BRI 77% | BRI 74% |