afl-tips.com

Adelaide vs St Kilda Tips

Round 17 2027, Mon 5 Jul, 12:30pm AEST at Adelaide Oval: we tip Adelaide by 20 with a 73% win chance.

Our tip
Adelaideby 20 points
Win chance
73%Adelaide 72.9%, St Kilda 27.1%
Predicted score
100–80Adelaide first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

ADESTK

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Adelaide72.9%20.1 pts
Elo Predicts!Adelaide81.8%17.0 pts
s10Adelaide65.1%13.0 pts
SquiggleAdelaide62.2%11.5 pts
StattractionAdelaide62.9%11.4 pts
Wheelo RatingsAdelaide67.2%14.6 pts
Squiggle aggregateAdelaide68.5%13.6 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Adelaide

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Adelaide rate +6.8 overall (6th) and St Kilda −2.1 (13th), which leaves Adelaide 20 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Adelaide+6.2+0.5+6.8WLWWL
St Kilda−0.5−1.6−2.1WLLWL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
17no draws
Adelaide wins
15
St Kilda wins
2
Average margin
41.1points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2016Round 11Adelaide OvalAdelaide 133, St Kilda 45Adelaide
2017Round 12Adelaide OvalAdelaide 111, St Kilda 54Adelaide
2018Round 3Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 55, Adelaide 104Adelaide
2019Round 6Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 68, Adelaide 97Adelaide
2019Round 20Adelaide OvalAdelaide 92, St Kilda 70Adelaide
2020Round 7Adelaide OvalAdelaide 55, St Kilda 78St Kilda
2021Round 13Cazaly's StadiumSt Kilda 60, Adelaide 66Adelaide
2022Round 10Adelaide OvalAdelaide 69, St Kilda 90St Kilda
2023Round 9Adelaide OvalAdelaide 121, St Kilda 69Adelaide
2024Round 18Adelaide OvalAdelaide 71, St Kilda 39Adelaide
2025Round 1Adelaide OvalAdelaide 135, St Kilda 72Adelaide
2026Round 6Adelaide OvalAdelaide 103, St Kilda 102Adelaide
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 17 tips Adelaide fixture St Kilda fixture