afl-tips.com

Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Tips

Round 12 2027, Sat 5 Jun, 4:35pm AEST at Gabba: we tip Brisbane Lions by 20 with a 73% win chance.

Our tip
Brisbaneby 20 points
Win chance
73%Brisbane 73.2%, Gold Coast 26.8%
Predicted score
108–88Brisbane first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

BRIGCS

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Brisbane73.2%20.4 pts
Elo Predicts!Brisbane74.8%21.0 pts
s10Brisbane72.1%19.8 pts
SquiggleBrisbane66.6%15.9 pts
StattractionBrisbane70.9%19.3 pts
Wheelo RatingsBrisbane73.3%20.3 pts
Squiggle aggregateBrisbane71.4%19.1 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Brisbane

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Brisbane rate +14.8 overall (1st) and Gold Coast −1.8 (12th), which leaves Brisbane 20 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Brisbane+17.4−2.6+14.8WLWWW
Gold Coast+0.5−2.4−1.8LLWLW
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
30no draws
Brisbane wins
23
Gold Coast wins
7
Average margin
37.8points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2021Round 19GabbaBrisbane 120, Gold Coast 71Brisbane
2022Round 6People First StadiumGold Coast 80, Brisbane 132Brisbane
2022Round 19GabbaBrisbane 110, Gold Coast 93Brisbane
2023Round 10GabbaBrisbane 107, Gold Coast 64Brisbane
2023Round 20People First StadiumGold Coast 96, Brisbane 55Gold Coast
2024Round 8GabbaBrisbane 79, Gold Coast 45Brisbane
2024Round 20People First StadiumGold Coast 65, Brisbane 93Brisbane
2025Round 8GabbaBrisbane 66, Gold Coast 49Brisbane
2025Round 20People First StadiumGold Coast 130, Brisbane 64Gold Coast
2025Semi-FinalsGabbaBrisbane 100, Gold Coast 47Brisbane
2026Round 13People First StadiumGold Coast 75, Brisbane 106Brisbane
2026Round 23GabbaBrisbane 95, Gold Coast 53Brisbane
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

They meet again in 2027

Mon 16 Aug12:00pm AEST · People First StadiumGold Coast35%GCSBRI66%BrisbaneBrisbane by 13Models 0–5

More on this game

All Round 12 tips Brisbane Lions fixture Gold Coast fixture