AFL Round 23 Tips 2027
starting Mon 16 Aug, we show each tip, its win chance and margin for all 9 games, alongside 5 public models already included.
- Start of play
- Mon 16 Aug12:00pm AEST, MCG
- Games
- 9No byes this round
- Streak selection
- Geelong89% to win, our safest tip
- Games with split predictions
- 3where the models do not agree
Tips for Round 23
our win chanceeach public modelAggregate from Squiggle.
The round's deciding games
Our win chance is closest to a coin toss in these 3 games. These games decide the round, so choose each tip with care.
- Collingwood v St KildaWe pick St Kilda: 52% win chance and a 1-point margin.
- Adelaide v FremantleWe pick Adelaide: 56% win chance and a 5-point margin.
- North Melbourne v MelbourneWe pick Melbourne: 61% win chance and a 9-point margin.
Streak selection
Geelong
Our most likely winner of the round faces Essendon at 89%. In a streak game, use this pick. A single miss resets the count.
Every match and model
| Game | Kick-off | Our tip | Win chance | Elo Predicts! | s10 | Squiggle | Stattraction | Wheelo Ratings | Aggregate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton v Port Adelaide | Mon 16 Aug, 12:00pm AEST | Carlton | 78.8% | CAR 59% | CAR 73% | CAR 77% | CAR 74% | CAR 72% | CAR 70% |
| Collingwood v St Kilda | Mon 16 Aug, 12:00pm AEST | St Kilda | 51.5% | COL 76% | COL 52% | COL 57% | STK 50% | COL 55% | COL 59% |
| Geelong v Essendon | Mon 16 Aug, 12:00pm AEST | Geelong | 88.7% | GEE 90% | GEE 91% | GEE 98% | GEE 91% | GEE 91% | GEE 92% |
| Gold Coast v Brisbane | Mon 16 Aug, 12:00pm AEST | Brisbane | 65.5% | BRI 78% | BRI 65% | BRI 62% | BRI 71% | BRI 59% | BRI 68% |
| GWS v Sydney | Mon 16 Aug, 12:00pm AEST | Sydney | 63.6% | GWS 66% | SYD 67% | SYD 68% | SYD 71% | SYD 63% | SYD 59% |
| North Melbourne v Melbourne | Mon 16 Aug, 12:00pm AEST | Melbourne | 60.7% | MEL 72% | MEL 68% | MEL 60% | MEL 72% | MEL 65% | MEL 67% |
| Western Bulldogs v Richmond | Mon 16 Aug, 12:00pm AEST | Western Bulldogs | 80.4% | WBD 93% | WBD 79% | WBD 84% | WBD 78% | WBD 80% | WBD 84% |
| Adelaide v Fremantle | Mon 16 Aug, 12:30pm AEST | Adelaide | 55.7% | ADE 77% | FRE 54% | FRE 56% | FRE 60% | ADE 52% | ADE 53% |
| West Coast v Hawthorn | Mon 16 Aug, 2:00pm AEST | Hawthorn | 74.6% | HAW 94% | HAW 77% | HAW 85% | HAW 81% | HAW 73% | HAW 83% |