afl-tips.com

Brisbane Lions vs Greater Western Sydney Tips

Round 5 2027, Sun 18 Apr, 6:10pm AEST at Gabba: we tip Brisbane Lions by 25 with a 78% win chance.

Our tip
Brisbaneby 25 points
Win chance
78%Brisbane 77.6%, GWS 22.4%
Predicted score
112–87Brisbane first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

BRIGWS

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Brisbane77.6%25.0 pts
Elo Predicts!Brisbane73.1%5.0 pts
s10Brisbane76.8%25.1 pts
SquiggleBrisbane70.4%19.6 pts
StattractionBrisbane76.7%26.0 pts
Wheelo RatingsBrisbane77.0%24.1 pts
Squiggle aggregateBrisbane74.3%18.7 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Brisbane

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Brisbane rate +14.8 overall (1st) and GWS −0.2 (11th), which leaves Brisbane 25 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Brisbane+17.4−2.6+14.8WLWWW
GWS+3.1−3.3−0.2LWLWL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
20no draws
Brisbane wins
9
GWS wins
11
Average margin
38.8points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2019Round 16Sydney ShowgroundGWS 74, Brisbane 94Brisbane
2019Semi-FinalsGabbaBrisbane 80, GWS 83GWS
2020Round 7Sydney ShowgroundGWS 68, Brisbane 88Brisbane
2021Round 11GabbaBrisbane 129, GWS 65Brisbane
2022Round 11GabbaBrisbane 110, GWS 96Brisbane
2022Round 18Manuka OvalGWS 59, Brisbane 99Brisbane
2023Round 6Manuka OvalGWS 87, Brisbane 108Brisbane
2024Round 7Manuka OvalGWS 113, Brisbane 59GWS
2024Round 22GabbaBrisbane 64, GWS 82GWS
2024Semi-FinalsSydney ShowgroundGWS 100, Brisbane 105Brisbane
2025Round 14GabbaBrisbane 96, GWS 107GWS
2026Round 11Sydney ShowgroundGWS 166, Brisbane 88GWS
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 5 tips Brisbane Lions fixture Greater Western Sydney fixture