afl-tips.com

Brisbane Lions vs St Kilda Tips

For Round 9 2027, we tip Brisbane Lions by 27 at Gabba, with an 80% win chance. The match is on Sun 16 May, 12: 30pm AEST.

Our pick
Brisbaneby 27 points
Win chance
80%; Brisbane 79.5% and St Kilda 20.5%.
The score we predict
111–83Brisbane first
Models backing us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model for this game

BRISTK

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Brisbane79.5%27.1 pts
Elo Predicts!Brisbane88.3%33.0 pts
s10Brisbane76.5%24.6 pts
SquiggleBrisbane71.6%20.8 pts
StattractionBrisbane73.6%22.4 pts
Wheelo RatingsBrisbane79.3%26.7 pts
Squiggle aggregateBrisbane78.2%25.7 pts
Each source's win chance belongs to the club it tips. Public model tips come from the Squiggle API, and the aggregate is Squiggle's average across all models. Grading happens after the siren.

Why we pick Brisbane

Each club is rated on attack and defence, using points against an average side. Home ground and travel are added for this game.

Overall, Brisbane rate +14.8 (1st), while St Kilda sit at −2.1 (13th). That makes Brisbane 27 points better for this game.

This model tipped 68.3% correctly over a span of 2,476 games between 2015 and 2026. Its average margin error was 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Brisbane+17.4−2.6+14.8WLWWW
St Kilda−0.5−1.6−2.1WLLWL
Points per game against an average side at the start of 2027. Form covers the last five games of 2026, with the most recent on the right.

Head to head record since 2012

Meetings
18no draws
Wins by Brisbane
12
Wins by St Kilda
6
Margin on average
29.6points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2018Round 1Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 107, Brisbane 82St Kilda
2019Round 14Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 59, Brisbane 115Brisbane
2020Round 13GabbaBrisbane 50, St Kilda 48Brisbane
2021Round 17People First StadiumBrisbane 63, St Kilda 95St Kilda
2022Round 13GabbaBrisbane 78, St Kilda 57Brisbane
2022Round 22Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 66, Brisbane 81Brisbane
2023Round 15Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 56, Brisbane 84Brisbane
2023Round 24GabbaBrisbane 72, St Kilda 60Brisbane
2024Round 14GabbaBrisbane 126, St Kilda 106Brisbane
2024Round 21Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 39, Brisbane 124Brisbane
2025Round 7Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 73, Brisbane 118Brisbane
2026Round 3Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 80, Brisbane 113Brisbane
The most recent meetings are listed first. Results come from the Squiggle API.

They play each other again in 2027

Mon 2 Aug12:00pm AEST · Marvel StadiumSt Kilda43%STKBRI57%BrisbaneBrisbane by 6Models 0–5

More about this game

All Round 9 tips Brisbane Lions fixture St Kilda fixture