afl-tips.com

Carlton vs Brisbane Lions Tips

Round 3 2027, Fri 2 Apr, 7:50pm AEDT at Marvel Stadium: we tip Brisbane Lions by 1 with a 51% win chance.

Our tip
Brisbaneby 1 points
Win chance
51%Carlton 48.6%, Brisbane 51.4%
Predicted score
96–97Carlton first
Models with us
4 of 51 tip Carlton

Every model on this game

CARBRI

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Brisbane51.4%1.2 pts
Elo Predicts!Brisbane70.7%22.0 pts
s10Brisbane55.3%4.5 pts
SquiggleCarlton50.0%0.0 pts
StattractionBrisbane55.5%4.7 pts
Wheelo RatingsBrisbane55.1%4.2 pts
Squiggle aggregateBrisbane57.8%7.7 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Brisbane

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Carlton rate +5.4 overall (7th) and Brisbane +14.8 (1st), which leaves Brisbane 1 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Carlton+2.2+3.1+5.4WDWWL
Brisbane+17.4−2.6+14.8WLWWW
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
21no draws
Carlton wins
7
Brisbane wins
14
Average margin
30.2points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2018Round 16GabbaBrisbane 120, Carlton 55Brisbane
2019Round 12Marvel StadiumCarlton 78, Brisbane 63Carlton
2020Round 18GabbaBrisbane 78, Carlton 61Brisbane
2021Round 6Marvel StadiumCarlton 85, Brisbane 103Brisbane
2022Round 21GabbaBrisbane 114, Carlton 81Brisbane
2023Round 8Marvel StadiumCarlton 74, Brisbane 100Brisbane
2023Preliminary FinalsGabbaBrisbane 79, Carlton 63Brisbane
2024Opening RoundGabbaBrisbane 85, Carlton 86Carlton
2024Finals Week 1GabbaBrisbane 99, Carlton 71Brisbane
2025Round 18Marvel StadiumCarlton 66, Brisbane 103Brisbane
2026Round 9GabbaBrisbane 100, Carlton 89Brisbane
2026Round 21Marvel StadiumCarlton 154, Brisbane 78Carlton
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 3 tips Carlton fixture Brisbane Lions fixture