afl-tips.com

Carlton vs Geelong Tips

Round 8 2027, Thu 6 May, 7:30pm AEST at MCG: we tip Geelong by 7 with a 59% win chance.

Our tip
Geelongby 7 points
Win chance
59%Carlton 41.4%, Geelong 58.6%
Predicted score
89–96Carlton first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

CARGEE

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Geelong58.6%7.2 pts
Elo Predicts!Geelong74.8%23.0 pts
s10Geelong64.4%12.6 pts
SquiggleGeelong59.5%9.2 pts
StattractionGeelong65.7%14.3 pts
Wheelo RatingsGeelong63.2%11.0 pts
Squiggle aggregateGeelong65.8%14.4 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Geelong

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Carlton rate +5.4 overall (7th) and Geelong +14.1 (3rd), which leaves Geelong 7 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Carlton+2.2+3.1+5.4WDWWL
Geelong+13.4+0.6+14.1WWWWL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
18no draws
Carlton wins
6
Geelong wins
12
Average margin
27.4points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2017Round 19Marvel StadiumCarlton 58, Geelong 123Geelong
2018Round 10GMHBA StadiumGeelong 73, Carlton 45Geelong
2019Round 23GMHBA StadiumGeelong 129, Carlton 61Geelong
2020Round 3GMHBA StadiumGeelong 77, Carlton 79Carlton
2021Round 17MCGCarlton 44, Geelong 70Geelong
2022Round 18MCGCarlton 55, Geelong 85Geelong
2023Round 2MCGCarlton 90, Geelong 82Carlton
2024Round 7MCGGeelong 118, Carlton 105Geelong
2024Round 15MCGCarlton 138, Geelong 75Carlton
2025Round 7MCGCarlton 94, Geelong 76Carlton
2026Round 12MCGCarlton 88, Geelong 84Carlton
2026Finals Week 1MCGGeelong 107, Carlton 74Geelong
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

They meet again in 2027

Mon 19 Jul12:00pm AEST · GMHBA StadiumGeelong65%GEECAR35%CarltonGeelong by 13Models 5–0

More on this game

All Round 8 tips Carlton fixture Geelong fixture