afl-tips.com

Collingwood vs Adelaide Tips

Round 22 2027, Mon 9 Aug, 12:00pm AEST at MCG: we tip Collingwood by 6 with a 57% win chance.

Our tip
Collingwoodby 6 points
Win chance
57%Collingwood 56.7%, Adelaide 43.3%
Predicted score
95–89Collingwood first
Models with us
4 of 51 tip Adelaide

Every model on this game

COLADE

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Collingwood56.7%5.6 pts
Elo Predicts!Collingwood54.1%1.0 pts
s10Collingwood50.1%0.0 pts
SquiggleCollingwood65.8%15.0 pts
StattractionAdelaide53.2%2.7 pts
Wheelo RatingsCollingwood53.3%2.7 pts
Squiggle aggregateCollingwood55.0%4.0 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Collingwood

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Collingwood rate +0.9 overall (10th) and Adelaide +6.8 (6th), which leaves Collingwood 6 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Collingwood+3.0−2.1+0.9LWDLL
Adelaide+6.2+0.5+6.8WLWWL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
211 drawn
Collingwood wins
14
Adelaide wins
6
Average margin
20.3points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2020Round 11Adelaide OvalAdelaide 38, Collingwood 62Collingwood
2021Round 12Adelaide OvalAdelaide 73, Collingwood 78Collingwood
2022Round 2MCGCollingwood 100, Adelaide 58Collingwood
2022Round 18Adelaide OvalAdelaide 86, Collingwood 91Collingwood
2023Round 7Adelaide OvalAdelaide 58, Collingwood 59Collingwood
2023Round 15MCGCollingwood 82, Adelaide 80Collingwood
2024Round 10MCGCollingwood 78, Adelaide 74Collingwood
2025Round 10MCGCollingwood 78, Adelaide 68Collingwood
2025Round 23Adelaide OvalAdelaide 59, Collingwood 56Adelaide
2025Finals Week 1Adelaide OvalAdelaide 55, Collingwood 79Collingwood
2026Round 1MCGCollingwood 79, Adelaide 93Adelaide
2026Round 20Adelaide OvalAdelaide 74, Collingwood 108Collingwood
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 22 tips Collingwood fixture Adelaide fixture