afl-tips.com

Collingwood vs Geelong Tips

Round 18 2027, Mon 12 Jul, 12:00pm AEST at MCG: we tip Geelong by 10 with a 62% win chance.

Our tip
Geelongby 10 points
Win chance
62%Collingwood 38.5%, Geelong 61.5%
Predicted score
91–100Collingwood first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

COLGEE

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Geelong61.5%9.7 pts
Elo Predicts!Geelong59.3%6.0 pts
s10Geelong67.2%15.5 pts
SquiggleGeelong61.1%10.2 pts
StattractionGeelong71.7%20.5 pts
Wheelo RatingsGeelong62.6%10.5 pts
Squiggle aggregateGeelong63.7%11.8 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Geelong

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Collingwood rate +0.9 overall (10th) and Geelong +14.1 (3rd), which leaves Geelong 10 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Collingwood+3.0−2.1+0.9LWDLL
Geelong+13.4+0.6+14.1WWWWL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
23no draws
Collingwood wins
10
Geelong wins
13
Average margin
21.8points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2019Finals Week 1MCGGeelong 51, Collingwood 61Collingwood
2020Round 7Optus StadiumGeelong 35, Collingwood 57Collingwood
2020Semi-FinalsGabbaGeelong 100, Collingwood 32Geelong
2021Round 11MCGCollingwood 51, Geelong 61Geelong
2022Round 3MCGCollingwood 91, Geelong 104Geelong
2022Finals Week 1MCGGeelong 78, Collingwood 72Geelong
2023Round 1MCGGeelong 103, Collingwood 125Collingwood
2023Round 22MCGCollingwood 109, Geelong 101Collingwood
2024Round 18MCGCollingwood 71, Geelong 91Geelong
2025Round 8MCGCollingwood 87, Geelong 90Geelong
2026Round 9MCGGeelong 122, Collingwood 68Geelong
2026Round 21MCGCollingwood 72, Geelong 97Geelong
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 18 tips Collingwood fixture Geelong fixture