afl-tips.com

Essendon vs Adelaide Tips

Round 10 2027, Sun 23 May, 3:15pm AEST at MCG: we tip Adelaide by 21 with a 73% win chance.

Our tip
Adelaideby 21 points
Win chance
73%Essendon 26.6%, Adelaide 73.4%
Predicted score
80–100Essendon first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

ESSADE

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Adelaide73.4%20.6 pts
Elo Predicts!Adelaide80.7%38.0 pts
s10Adelaide78.0%26.5 pts
SquiggleAdelaide72.6%21.9 pts
StattractionAdelaide79.7%29.6 pts
Wheelo RatingsAdelaide76.3%23.3 pts
Squiggle aggregateAdelaide77.3%28.2 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Adelaide

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Essendon rate −22.3 overall (18th) and Adelaide +6.8 (6th), which leaves Adelaide 21 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Essendon−10.7−11.7−22.3LLLLL
Adelaide+6.2+0.5+6.8WLWWL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
17no draws
Essendon wins
9
Adelaide wins
8
Average margin
35.8points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2017Round 4Adelaide OvalAdelaide 153, Essendon 88Adelaide
2017Round 21Marvel StadiumEssendon 80, Adelaide 123Adelaide
2018Round 1Marvel StadiumEssendon 99, Adelaide 87Essendon
2019Round 18Adelaide OvalAdelaide 75, Essendon 96Essendon
2020Round 8Adelaide OvalAdelaide 59, Essendon 62Essendon
2021Round 17Marvel StadiumEssendon 84, Adelaide 21Essendon
2022Round 4Marvel StadiumEssendon 103, Adelaide 99Essendon
2023Round 17Marvel StadiumEssendon 115, Adelaide 97Essendon
2024Round 6Adelaide OvalAdelaide 75, Essendon 78Essendon
2024Round 19Marvel StadiumEssendon 113, Adelaide 115Adelaide
2025Round 2MCGEssendon 100, Adelaide 161Adelaide
2026Round 21Marvel StadiumEssendon 73, Adelaide 145Adelaide
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 10 tips Essendon fixture Adelaide fixture