afl-tips.com

Essendon vs Western Bulldogs Tips

Round 21 2027, Mon 2 Aug, 12:00pm AEST at Marvel Stadium: we tip Western Bulldogs by 26 with a 79% win chance.

Our tip
Western Bulldogsby 26 points
Win chance
79%Essendon 21.5%, Western Bulldogs 78.5%
Predicted score
73–99Essendon first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

ESSWBD

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Western Bulldogs78.5%26.1 pts
Elo Predicts!Western Bulldogs86.0%38.0 pts
s10Western Bulldogs77.1%25.5 pts
SquiggleWestern Bulldogs84.6%37.2 pts
StattractionWestern Bulldogs78.1%27.8 pts
Wheelo RatingsWestern Bulldogs76.1%23.2 pts
Squiggle aggregateWestern Bulldogs81.2%31.6 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Western Bulldogs

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Essendon rate −22.3 overall (18th) and Western Bulldogs +1.8 (9th), which leaves Western Bulldogs 26 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Essendon−10.7−11.7−22.3LLLLL
Western Bulldogs+0.1+1.7+1.8LDWWL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
18no draws
Essendon wins
6
Western Bulldogs wins
12
Average margin
46.4points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2017Round 19Marvel StadiumWestern Bulldogs 127, Essendon 97Western Bulldogs
2018Round 3Marvel StadiumWestern Bulldogs 104, Essendon 83Western Bulldogs
2019Round 21Marvel StadiumEssendon 33, Western Bulldogs 137Western Bulldogs
2020Round 7People First StadiumEssendon 51, Western Bulldogs 93Western Bulldogs
2021Round 21Marvel StadiumWestern Bulldogs 84, Essendon 97Essendon
2021Finals Week 1York ParkWestern Bulldogs 85, Essendon 36Western Bulldogs
2022Round 7Marvel StadiumWestern Bulldogs 103, Essendon 71Western Bulldogs
2023Round 19Marvel StadiumEssendon 49, Western Bulldogs 90Western Bulldogs
2024Round 5Marvel StadiumWestern Bulldogs 67, Essendon 96Essendon
2025Round 10Marvel StadiumWestern Bulldogs 127, Essendon 36Western Bulldogs
2025Round 20Marvel StadiumEssendon 50, Western Bulldogs 143Western Bulldogs
2026Round 4Marvel StadiumWestern Bulldogs 99, Essendon 65Western Bulldogs
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 21 tips Essendon fixture Western Bulldogs fixture