afl-tips.com

Fremantle vs Melbourne Tips

Round 10 2027, Thu 20 May, 8:10pm AEST at Optus Stadium: we tip Fremantle by 19 with a 72% win chance.

Our tip
Fremantleby 19 points
Win chance
72%Fremantle 71.6%, Melbourne 28.4%
Predicted score
100–81Fremantle first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

FREMEL

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Fremantle71.6%18.8 pts
Elo Predicts!Fremantle73.8%8.0 pts
s10Fremantle69.0%16.9 pts
SquiggleFremantle74.5%24.0 pts
StattractionFremantle70.1%18.7 pts
Wheelo RatingsFremantle67.8%15.1 pts
Squiggle aggregateFremantle71.5%16.4 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Fremantle

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Fremantle rate +12.8 overall (4th) and Melbourne +5.0 (8th), which leaves Fremantle 19 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Fremantle+5.7+7.1+12.8LLWWL
Melbourne+7.3−2.3+5.0WWWLL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
21no draws
Fremantle wins
14
Melbourne wins
7
Average margin
42.8points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2018Round 16Marrara OvalMelbourne 102, Fremantle 48Melbourne
2019Round 14MCGMelbourne 85, Fremantle 71Melbourne
2020Round 16Cazaly's StadiumMelbourne 33, Fremantle 47Fremantle
2021Round 1MCGMelbourne 80, Fremantle 58Melbourne
2022Round 11MCGMelbourne 56, Fremantle 94Fremantle
2022Round 20Optus StadiumFremantle 39, Melbourne 85Melbourne
2023Round 11MCGMelbourne 72, Fremantle 79Fremantle
2024Round 12Traeger ParkMelbourne 49, Fremantle 141Fremantle
2024Round 19Optus StadiumFremantle 116, Melbourne 66Fremantle
2025Round 6MCGMelbourne 107, Fremantle 97Melbourne
2026Round 2Optus StadiumFremantle 118, Melbourne 70Fremantle
2026Round 22MCGMelbourne 113, Fremantle 109Melbourne
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 10 tips Fremantle fixture Melbourne fixture