afl-tips.com

Fremantle vs St Kilda Tips

For Round 6 2027, we favor Fremantle at Optus Stadium. On Sun 25 Apr, 8: 15pm AEST, our prediction is a 26 point win and a 78% chance of victory.

Our selection
Fremantleby 26 points
Win chance
78% Fremantle 78.1%, and St Kilda 21.9%
Score we predict
99–73Fremantle first
Models backing us
5 of 5every public model agrees

All models for this game

FRESTK

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Fremantle78.1%25.6 pts
Elo Predicts!Fremantle73.6%7.0 pts
s10Fremantle78.5%27.1 pts
SquiggleFremantle73.3%22.7 pts
StattractionFremantle79.1%29.2 pts
Wheelo RatingsFremantle77.8%25.0 pts
Squiggle aggregateFremantle76.0%21.0 pts
Each source's win chance belongs to the club it tips. Public model tips come from the Squiggle API; Squiggle's average of all models forms the aggregate. It is graded after the siren.

Why our tip is Fremantle

Our ratings give each club a score for attack and defence. Each score measures points against an average side. For this game, we add home ground and travel.

St Kilda sit at −2.1 (13th) while Fremantle are +12.8 overall (4th). That gap puts Fremantle 26 points ahead on the day.

Over the 2,476 games played from 2015 to 2026, the model was right 68.3% of the time, and its average margin error came to 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Fremantle+5.7+7.1+12.8LLWWL
St Kilda−0.5−1.6−2.1WLLWL
Points per game against an average side, at the start of 2027. Form covers the last five games of 2026, with the latest on the right.

Head to head from 2012

Meetings
19no draws
Wins by Fremantle
10
Wins by St Kilda
9
The average margin
28.4points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2018Round 8Optus StadiumFremantle 89, St Kilda 59Fremantle
2019Round 3Optus StadiumFremantle 71, St Kilda 66Fremantle
2019Round 21Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 72, Fremantle 69St Kilda
2020Round 6People First StadiumFremantle 79, St Kilda 73Fremantle
2021Round 23Bellerive OvalSt Kilda 107, Fremantle 49St Kilda
2022Round 2Optus StadiumFremantle 55, St Kilda 65St Kilda
2022Round 17Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 70, Fremantle 111Fremantle
2023Round 1Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 67, Fremantle 52St Kilda
2024Round 10Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 55, Fremantle 72Fremantle
2025Round 8Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 94, Fremantle 33St Kilda
2025Round 16Optus StadiumFremantle 81, St Kilda 69Fremantle
2026Round 11Optus StadiumFremantle 104, St Kilda 74Fremantle
Most recent meetings come first. Results come from the Squiggle API.

More about this game

All Round 6 tips Fremantle fixture St Kilda fixture