afl-tips.com

Geelong vs Brisbane Lions Tips

Round 13 2027, Fri 11 Jun, 7:40pm AEST at GMHBA Stadium: we tip Geelong by 9 with a 61% win chance.

Our tip
Geelongby 9 points
Win chance
61%Geelong 60.5%, Brisbane 39.5%
Predicted score
107–99Geelong first
Models with us
4 of 51 tip Brisbane

Every model on this game

GEEBRI

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Geelong60.5%8.8 pts
Elo Predicts!Brisbane50.9%10.0 pts
s10Geelong61.8%10.2 pts
SquiggleGeelong71.2%20.4 pts
StattractionGeelong60.5%9.5 pts
Wheelo RatingsGeelong63.1%10.9 pts
Squiggle aggregateGeelong61.0%7.7 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Geelong

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Geelong rate +14.1 overall (3rd) and Brisbane +14.8 (1st), which leaves Geelong 9 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Geelong+13.4+0.6+14.1WWWWL
Brisbane+17.4−2.6+14.8WLWWW
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
26no draws
Geelong wins
17
Brisbane wins
9
Average margin
33.9points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2021Round 15GabbaBrisbane 94, Geelong 50Brisbane
2022Round 4GMHBA StadiumGeelong 80, Brisbane 70Geelong
2022Preliminary FinalsMCGGeelong 120, Brisbane 49Geelong
2023Round 19GabbaBrisbane 64, Geelong 53Brisbane
2024Round 6GabbaBrisbane 37, Geelong 63Geelong
2024Preliminary FinalsMCGGeelong 85, Brisbane 95Brisbane
2025Round 3GabbaBrisbane 70, Geelong 61Brisbane
2025Round 15GMHBA StadiumGeelong 51, Brisbane 92Brisbane
2025Finals Week 1MCGGeelong 112, Brisbane 74Geelong
2025Grand FinalMCGGeelong 75, Brisbane 122Brisbane
2026Round 10GabbaBrisbane 76, Geelong 117Geelong
2026Round 17GMHBA StadiumGeelong 101, Brisbane 123Brisbane
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

They meet again in 2027

Mon 9 Aug12:00pm AEST · GabbaBrisbane63%BRIGEE37%GeelongBrisbane by 11Models 5–0

More on this game

All Round 13 tips Geelong fixture Brisbane Lions fixture