afl-tips.com

Geelong vs Gold Coast Tips

Round 16 2027, Sat 3 Jul, 4:15pm AEST at GMHBA Stadium: we tip Geelong by 25 with a 78% win chance.

Our tip
Geelongby 25 points
Win chance
78%Geelong 77.9%, Gold Coast 22.1%
Predicted score
107–82Geelong first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

GEEGCS

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Geelong77.9%25.4 pts
Elo Predicts!Geelong79.1%13.0 pts
s10Geelong77.7%26.2 pts
SquiggleGeelong79.1%29.6 pts
StattractionGeelong78.0%27.7 pts
Wheelo RatingsGeelong77.5%24.7 pts
Squiggle aggregateGeelong78.4%23.7 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Geelong

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Geelong rate +14.1 overall (3rd) and Gold Coast −1.8 (12th), which leaves Geelong 25 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Geelong+13.4+0.6+14.1WWWWL
Gold Coast+0.5−2.4−1.8LLWLW
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
17no draws
Geelong wins
12
Gold Coast wins
5
Average margin
47.8points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2017Round 7People First StadiumGold Coast 124, Geelong 99Gold Coast
2018Round 11People First StadiumGold Coast 36, Geelong 121Geelong
2018Round 23GMHBA StadiumGeelong 142, Gold Coast 40Geelong
2019Round 10People First StadiumGold Coast 64, Geelong 91Geelong
2020Round 5GMHBA StadiumGeelong 89, Gold Coast 52Geelong
2021Round 10GMHBA StadiumGeelong 91, Gold Coast 57Geelong
2022Round 22People First StadiumGold Coast 59, Geelong 119Geelong
2023Round 3People First StadiumGold Coast 73, Geelong 54Gold Coast
2024Round 10Marrara OvalGold Coast 164, Geelong 100Gold Coast
2025Round 13GMHBA StadiumGeelong 61, Gold Coast 37Geelong
2026Opening RoundPeople First StadiumGold Coast 125, Geelong 69Gold Coast
2026Round 14GMHBA StadiumGeelong 105, Gold Coast 60Geelong
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 16 tips Geelong fixture Gold Coast fixture