AFL Round 16 Tips 2027
Thu 1 Jul brings 9 games, each listed with our tip, win chance and margin beside 5 public models already included.
- Opening bounce
- Thu 1 Jul7:30pm AEST, Gabba
- Games
- 9No byes this round
- The streak pick
- Geelong78% to win, our safest tip
- The split games
- 1where the models do not agree
Tips for Round 16
our win chanceeach public modelThe Squiggle aggregate.
Games that decide the round
These 3 games have our win chance closest to a coin toss. Tip these games carefully, as they are the matches that decide a round.
- Essendon v RichmondRichmond, 51%, by 1.
- St Kilda v Western BulldogsWestern Bulldogs, 55%, by 4.
- Carlton v North MelbourneCarlton holds 64%, with an 11-point margin.
Streak tip
Geelong
Our round's most likely winner: 78% against Gold Coast. For a streak game, one miss resets the count, so use this pick.
The gauntlet pick
Essendon
Pick one club per round without choosing the same club twice. Our season plan selects Essendon at 49% here. See all 24 rounds
All games and models
| Game | Kick-off | Our tip | Win chance | Elo Predicts! | s10 | Squiggle | Stattraction | Wheelo Ratings | Aggregate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane v Fremantle | Thu 1 Jul, 7:30pm AEST | Brisbane | 64.2% | BRI 86% | BRI 60% | BRI 56% | BRI 52% | BRI 67% | BRI 65% |
| Sydney v Melbourne | Fri 2 Jul, 7:40pm AEST | Sydney | 73.1% | SYD 69% | SYD 66% | SYD 75% | SYD 64% | SYD 68% | SYD 69% |
| West Coast v Adelaide | Fri 2 Jul, 8:10pm AEST | Adelaide | 69.5% | ADE 90% | ADE 71% | ADE 66% | ADE 75% | ADE 68% | ADE 75% |
| Port Adelaide v Hawthorn | Sat 3 Jul, 1:35pm AEST | Hawthorn | 64.0% | HAW 74% | HAW 70% | HAW 78% | HAW 72% | HAW 68% | HAW 73% |
| Geelong v Gold Coast | Sat 3 Jul, 4:15pm AEST | Geelong | 77.9% | GEE 79% | GEE 78% | GEE 79% | GEE 78% | GEE 78% | GEE 78% |
| Collingwood v GWS | Sat 3 Jul, 4:35pm AEST | Collingwood | 65.4% | COL 62% | COL 60% | COL 67% | COL 59% | COL 62% | COL 62% |
| Carlton v North Melbourne | Sat 3 Jul, 7:35pm AEST | Carlton | 63.5% | CAR 78% | CAR 68% | CAR 67% | CAR 70% | CAR 65% | CAR 70% |
| Essendon v Richmond | Sun 4 Jul, 3:15pm AEST | Richmond | 51.0% | ESS 64% | RIC 51% | RIC 53% | RIC 51% | RIC 52% | ESS 52% |
| St Kilda v Western Bulldogs | Sun 4 Jul, 5:10pm AEST | Western Bulldogs | 54.7% | WBD 76% | WBD 51% | WBD 57% | WBD 50% | WBD 52% | WBD 59% |