afl-tips.com

Geelong vs Hawthorn Tips

Round 2 2027, Mon 29 Mar, 3:15pm AEDT at MCG: we tip Geelong by 1 with a 51% win chance.

Our tip
Geelongby 1 points
Win chance
51%Geelong 51.2%, Hawthorn 48.8%
Predicted score
95–94Geelong first
Models with us
4 of 51 tip Hawthorn

Every model on this game

GEEHAW

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Geelong51.2%1.0 pts
Elo Predicts!Geelong56.8%5.0 pts
s10Geelong55.7%5.0 pts
SquiggleHawthorn58.2%8.1 pts
StattractionGeelong56.4%5.8 pts
Wheelo RatingsGeelong55.0%4.1 pts
Squiggle aggregateGeelong52.5%1.7 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Geelong

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Geelong rate +14.1 overall (3rd) and Hawthorn +11.6 (5th), which leaves Geelong 1 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Geelong+13.4+0.6+14.1WWWWL
Hawthorn+7.1+4.4+11.6LDWWL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
27no draws
Geelong wins
17
Hawthorn wins
10
Average margin
24.7points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2018Round 21MCGHawthorn 71, Geelong 60Hawthorn
2019Round 5MCGHawthorn 90, Geelong 113Geelong
2019Round 18MCGGeelong 61, Hawthorn 85Hawthorn
2020Round 2GMHBA StadiumGeelong 108, Hawthorn 47Geelong
2021Round 3MCGGeelong 69, Hawthorn 64Geelong
2022Round 5MCGHawthorn 92, Geelong 80Hawthorn
2023Round 4MCGGeelong 127, Hawthorn 45Geelong
2024Round 3MCGHawthorn 70, Geelong 106Geelong
2024Round 17GMHBA StadiumGeelong 110, Hawthorn 59Geelong
2025Round 6MCGGeelong 86, Hawthorn 79Geelong
2025Preliminary FinalsMCGGeelong 115, Hawthorn 85Geelong
2026Round 4MCGHawthorn 92, Geelong 91Hawthorn
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

They meet again in 2027

Mon 5 Jul12:00pm AEST · MCGHawthorn49%HAWGEE51%GeelongGeelong by 1Models 1–4

More on this game

All Round 2 tips Geelong fixture Hawthorn fixture