afl-tips.com

Geelong vs Melbourne Tips

Round 11 2027, Fri 28 May, 7:40pm AEST at GMHBA Stadium: we tip Geelong by 13 with a 65% win chance.

Our tip
Geelongby 13 points
Win chance
65%Geelong 65.4%, Melbourne 34.6%
Predicted score
104–91Geelong first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

GEEMEL

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Geelong65.4%13.1 pts
Elo Predicts!Geelong80.8%22.0 pts
s10Geelong65.8%13.9 pts
SquiggleGeelong75.7%25.3 pts
StattractionGeelong65.7%14.2 pts
Wheelo RatingsGeelong66.0%13.5 pts
Squiggle aggregateGeelong72.0%18.8 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Geelong

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Geelong rate +14.1 overall (3rd) and Melbourne +5.0 (8th), which leaves Geelong 13 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Geelong+13.4+0.6+14.1WWWWL
Melbourne+7.3−2.3+5.0WWWLL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
19no draws
Geelong wins
13
Melbourne wins
6
Average margin
35.8points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2018Round 18GMHBA StadiumGeelong 100, Melbourne 98Geelong
2018Finals Week 1MCGMelbourne 75, Geelong 46Melbourne
2019Round 2GMHBA StadiumGeelong 126, Melbourne 46Geelong
2020Round 4MCGMelbourne 44, Geelong 47Geelong
2021Round 4MCGMelbourne 85, Geelong 60Melbourne
2021Round 23GMHBA StadiumGeelong 77, Melbourne 81Melbourne
2021Preliminary FinalsOptus StadiumMelbourne 125, Geelong 42Melbourne
2022Round 17GMHBA StadiumGeelong 91, Melbourne 63Geelong
2023Round 15GMHBA StadiumGeelong 78, Melbourne 63Geelong
2024Round 8MCGMelbourne 74, Geelong 66Melbourne
2025Round 4GMHBA StadiumGeelong 85, Melbourne 46Geelong
2026Round 20MCGMelbourne 97, Geelong 117Geelong
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 11 tips Geelong fixture Melbourne fixture