afl-tips.com

Geelong vs Port Adelaide Tips

Round 21 2027, Mon 2 Aug, 12:00pm AEST at GMHBA Stadium: we tip Geelong by 35 with a 86% win chance.

Our tip
Geelongby 35 points
Win chance
86%Geelong 85.6%, Port Adelaide 14.4%
Predicted score
110–75Geelong first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

GEEPTA

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Geelong85.6%35.0 pts
Elo Predicts!Geelong84.9%22.0 pts
s10Geelong84.7%35.3 pts
SquiggleGeelong89.3%45.2 pts
StattractionGeelong84.3%36.8 pts
Wheelo RatingsGeelong85.0%33.9 pts
Squiggle aggregateGeelong85.9%34.5 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Geelong

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Geelong rate +14.1 overall (3rd) and Port Adelaide −11.2 (15th), which leaves Geelong 35 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Geelong+13.4+0.6+14.1WWWWL
Port Adelaide−6.2−5.0−11.2LLLLW
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
23no draws
Geelong wins
16
Port Adelaide wins
7
Average margin
35.0points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2020Finals Week 1Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide 58, Geelong 42Port Adelaide
2021Round 13Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide 91, Geelong 112Geelong
2021Finals Week 1Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide 86, Geelong 43Port Adelaide
2022Round 10GMHBA StadiumGeelong 82, Port Adelaide 47Geelong
2022Round 19Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide 94, Geelong 106Geelong
2023Round 14Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide 110, Geelong 72Port Adelaide
2023Round 21GMHBA StadiumGeelong 97, Port Adelaide 85Geelong
2024Round 9GMHBA StadiumGeelong 95, Port Adelaide 101Port Adelaide
2024Finals Week 1Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide 54, Geelong 138Geelong
2025Round 10Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide 39, Geelong 115Geelong
2025Round 21GMHBA StadiumGeelong 153, Port Adelaide 65Geelong
2026Round 7Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide 95, Geelong 65Port Adelaide
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 21 tips Geelong fixture Port Adelaide fixture