afl-tips.com

Geelong vs Richmond Tips

At GMHBA Stadium, our Round 3 2027 pick on Sun 4 Apr, 12: 30pm AEST is Geelong, by 39, with an 88% win chance.

Our selection
Geelongby 39 points
Win chance
Geelong 88.4%, Richmond 11.6%; win chance 88%
Score prediction
110–71Geelong first
Models backing us
5 of 5every public model agrees

All models for this match

GEERIC

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Geelong88.4%39.4 pts
Elo Predicts!Geelong89.3%41.0 pts
s10Geelong90.9%47.2 pts
SquiggleGeelong90.3%47.1 pts
StattractionGeelong91.5%52.0 pts
Wheelo RatingsGeelong90.3%42.4 pts
Squiggle aggregateGeelong90.4%45.6 pts
Each source's win chance applies to the club it tips. The Squiggle API provides public model tips, while Squiggle's aggregate averages every model. Grading takes place after the siren.

Our reason for backing Geelong

Our ratings give each club attack and defence scores based on points against an average side. Home ground and travel are included for this game.

Overall, Geelong rate +14.1 (3rd), while Richmond are at −21.8 (17th). That makes Geelong 39 points better on the day.

During the period from 2015 to 2026, the model tipped 68.3% correctly over 2,476 games. Its average margin error was 27.0 points. Model method

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Geelong+13.4+0.6+14.1WWWWL
Richmond−13.1−8.7−21.8LWLLL
Points scored per game against an average side at the start of 2027. Form covers the last five games of 2026, with the latest result on the right.

Head-to-head results since 2012

Meetings
21no draws
Wins for Geelong
14
Wins for Richmond
7
Margin on average
29.9points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2019Round 12MCGRichmond 37, Geelong 104Geelong
2019Preliminary FinalsMCGRichmond 85, Geelong 66Richmond
2020Round 17People First StadiumGeelong 31, Richmond 57Richmond
2020Grand FinalGabbaRichmond 81, Geelong 50Richmond
2021Round 8MCGRichmond 63, Geelong 126Geelong
2021Round 19MCGGeelong 95, Richmond 57Geelong
2022Round 15MCGGeelong 89, Richmond 86Geelong
2023Round 9MCGRichmond 102, Geelong 78Richmond
2024Round 12GMHBA StadiumGeelong 99, Richmond 69Geelong
2025Round 17GMHBA StadiumGeelong 124, Richmond 52Geelong
2025Round 24MCGRichmond 64, Geelong 103Geelong
2026Round 24GMHBA StadiumGeelong 133, Richmond 76Geelong
The most recent meetings are listed first. These results come from the Squiggle API.

Details about this match

All Round 3 tips Geelong fixture Richmond fixture