afl-tips.com

Gold Coast vs Essendon Tips

Our tip for Round 8 2027 is Gold Coast by 30, with an 82% win chance. People First Stadium hosts the match on Sat 8 May, 1: 15pm AEST.

Our prediction
Gold Coastby 30 points
Win chance
Gold Coast 81.8%, Essendon 18.2%; 82%
Score prediction
103–73Gold Coast first
Models agreeing with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model for this game

GCSESS

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Gold Coast81.8%30.0 pts
Elo Predicts!Gold Coast82.1%30.0 pts
s10Gold Coast81.7%31.0 pts
SquiggleGold Coast83.7%35.9 pts
StattractionGold Coast79.4%29.5 pts
Wheelo RatingsGold Coast84.0%32.5 pts
Squiggle aggregateGold Coast82.3%32.0 pts
For each source, the win chance applies to the club it tips. Public model tips come from the Squiggle API; Squiggle's aggregate averages all models. The grading comes after the siren.

What makes us favor Gold Coast

Our ratings assess each club's attack and defence using points against an average side. For this game, they also include home ground and travel.

Gold Coast's overall rating is −1.8 (12th), compared with Essendon's −22.3 (18th). On the day, this puts Gold Coast 30 points ahead.

The model tipped 68.3% of 2,476 games correctly from 2015 to 2026. Its average margin error was 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Gold Coast+0.5−2.4−1.8LLWLW
Essendon−10.7−11.7−22.3LLLLL
These are points per game against an average side at the start of 2027. Form covers the last five games of 2026, with the latest on the right.

Head-to-head results since 2012

Meetings
181 drawn
Gold Coast wins
7
Essendon wins
10
Margin on average
29.8points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2017Round 22People First StadiumGold Coast 57, Essendon 90Essendon
2018Round 17People First StadiumGold Coast 51, Essendon 95Essendon
2019Round 19People First StadiumGold Coast 96, Essendon 106Essendon
2020Round 11People First StadiumGold Coast 73, Essendon 73Draw
2021Round 22GMHBA StadiumGold Coast 30, Essendon 98Essendon
2022Round 18Marvel StadiumEssendon 103, Gold Coast 55Essendon
2023Round 2Marvel StadiumEssendon 108, Gold Coast 80Essendon
2024Round 12People First StadiumGold Coast 91, Essendon 80Gold Coast
2024Round 22Marvel StadiumEssendon 86, Gold Coast 87Gold Coast
2025Round 17Marvel StadiumEssendon 74, Gold Coast 115Gold Coast
2025Round 24People First StadiumGold Coast 153, Essendon 58Gold Coast
2026Round 6People First StadiumGold Coast 119, Essendon 110Gold Coast
The latest meetings appear first. These results come from the Squiggle API.

More about this game

All Round 8 tips Gold Coast fixture Essendon fixture