afl-tips.com

Greater Western Sydney vs Carlton Tips

At Sydney Showground, our Round 17 2027 pick is Greater Western Sydney. The match starts Mon 5 Jul, 12: 00pm AEST, and our tip is a 4-point win with a 55% probability.

Our selection
GWSby 4 points
Win chance
55%, alongside GWS 54.7% and Carlton 45.3%.
Score prediction
91–87GWS first
Models agreeing with us
4 of 51 tip Carlton

Every model for this game

GWSCAR

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)GWS54.7%3.9 pts
Elo Predicts!GWS75.4%16.0 pts
s10GWS50.7%0.4 pts
SquiggleGWS51.7%0.7 pts
StattractionCarlton53.3%3.0 pts
Wheelo RatingsGWS54.6%3.8 pts
Squiggle aggregateGWS57.1%4.4 pts
Each win chance belongs to the club that the source tips. Public model tips come from the Squiggle API, while the aggregate is Squiggle's average across all models. Results are graded after the siren.

Why GWS gets our tip

Each club's attack and defence are scored in our ratings using points against an average side. For this game, the home ground and travel also affect the ratings.

Carlton is +5.4 overall (7th), while GWS is −0.2 (11th). That difference leaves GWS 4 points ahead for the day.

Between 2015 and 2026, this model predicted 2,476 games and chose the winner correctly 68.3% of the time. Average margin error was 27.0 points. How it works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
GWS+3.1−3.3−0.2LWLWL
Carlton+2.2+3.1+5.4WDWWL
Points per game against an average side at the start of 2027. Form covers the last five games of 2026, with the latest listed on the right.

Head-to-head record since 2012

Meetings
20no draws
Wins for GWS
12
Wins for Carlton
8
The average margin
41.9points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2019Round 9Sydney ShowgroundGWS 138, Carlton 45GWS
2020Round 15People First StadiumGWS 48, Carlton 39GWS
2021Round 14Sydney ShowgroundGWS 102, Carlton 66GWS
2021Round 23Marvel StadiumCarlton 75, GWS 89GWS
2022Round 9Sydney ShowgroundGWS 75, Carlton 105Carlton
2022Round 19Marvel StadiumCarlton 90, GWS 54Carlton
2023Round 3Sydney ShowgroundGWS 64, Carlton 74Carlton
2023Round 24Marvel StadiumCarlton 73, GWS 105GWS
2024Round 6Marvel StadiumCarlton 117, GWS 98Carlton
2024Round 17Sydney ShowgroundGWS 116, Carlton 104GWS
2025Round 11Marvel StadiumCarlton 82, GWS 110GWS
2026Round 15Sydney ShowgroundGWS 65, Carlton 88Carlton
The most recent meetings come first. These results come from the Squiggle API.

The teams meet again in 2027

Mon 23 Aug12:00pm AEST · Marvel StadiumCarlton65%CARGWS35%GWSCarlton by 13Models 4–1

More about this game

All Round 17 tips Greater Western Sydney fixture Carlton fixture